On Wednesday morning, the downward pressure on the euro regain the upper hand against the greenback, the single currency will trade around 1.4030 dollars against 1.4118 on Tuesday evening. In addition to a movement of profit taking after a rebound from the previous day – business confidence in Germany was well back, reassuring investors – "fears about the debt crisis of eurozone worsen ' says Saxo Bank in its daily note. Evidence of these serious concerns, "the rate two years Greeks have strained to reach record levels 25.736%." It must be said that the question of a possible restructuring of the Greek debt continues to generate controversy.Warnings against this possibility continue to multiply like the statements of members of the European Central Bank (ECB), European finance ministers, or even that of Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France saying it would be a "horror scenario".
Thus, the euro is on the verge of crossing the bar down $ 1.40. On Monday, the euro fell briefly below before rebounding. The currency suffered threats from rating agencies like Standard & Poor's that put a negative outlook on the rating of Italy, or that Fitch downgraded three notches note of the long-term debt of Greece, and monitor indicated that of Belgium. In addition, in Spain, the protests continued and the elections that went wrong for the Socialist Party in place, have fueled concerns about contagion cases Greek, Irish and Portuguese."As long as the debt crisis concerns only these three countries in the euro area, which weigh about 6% to 7% of its GDP, it is relatively manageable, felt Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo Securities. If it extends to Italy and Spain, it will be any more ".
Earlier this month, the euro had risen to nearly $ 1.50. Thus in twenty days, the currency has depreciated it by 6%. What, finally, is a pretty good news for European exporters in general and French in particular. These companies are suffering because of the level of the euro currency deemed "too strong", including Nicolas Sarkozy, faced with foreign currency (dollar, yuan, etc..) Pushed down by the local monetary authorities.
The euro, however, could see its downtrend settle or even reversed as speculation about a future rate hikes by the ECB resurface.However, a tightening in June seems excluded, as was suggested by President Jean-Claude Trichet recently.
• The Swiss franc receives record against the euro
Decline of the euro requires the Swiss franc appreciates mechanically. The Swiss currency rose to 1.2323 Swiss francs per euro on Wednesday morning, a record. Earlier this month, the exchange rate was worth around 1.30 (when the rate euro / Swiss franc drops, the Swiss franc rises), an appreciation of 5.7%. A year ago, it was more than 1.41 (+13% yoy) and three years ago, the euro was trading at 1.65 Swiss francs (+25%).
"The Swiss franc remains the strong currency on the market for foreign exchange, to the despair of many companies and sectors" Swiss exporters, estimated in a note to analysts at Pictet.For the latter, the franc could rise "soon" the bar of 1.20 francs per euro in a volatile economic environment. "The strength of the franc could weigh on economic recovery," said the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) said in a statement.
• Belarus devalued its ruble by 36%
Another milestone this week, Belarus, facing a major financial crisis, decided to devalue the ruble by 36% to align the various courses in force in the country, according to a statement from the Central Bank on Monday. From May 24, the official exchange rate is fixed to 4930 Belarusian rubles to the dollar and 6914.82 rubles per euro, down from 3,155 Belarusian rubles a dollar before and cons of 4 516.38 rubles per euro.The dollar has appreciated by 56% as compared to the Belarusian ruble.
Belarus, a country in Eastern Europe led by Alexander Lukashenko in power for nearly 17 years, is sealed by an abysmal trade deficit, and sees its foreign currency reserves will reduce to a trickle.
• The yen is benefiting from a trade deficit less worse than expected
The Japanese currency has recovered slightly against the dollar after the announcement that the Japanese trade deficit was less than expected. Japan posted a trade deficit of 12.5% yoy in April – the highest in 31 years – because of the consequences of the earthquake and giant tidal waves on 11 March. The deficit reached 463.7 billion yen ($ 5.6 billion) in April, against a surplus of 729.2 billion yen a year earlier. But it is much lower than the expectations of the markets. They anticipated 700 billion yen.
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