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LE FIGARO. – Do you double dip scenario?

I believe more in a low growth as a relapse of the activity. There have been a very sharp slowdown, as the pace of growth fell from 5% at end 2009 to 1.6%. These figures, subject to some volatility, however, overstate the true extent of the downturn even if the coming quarters, many uncertainties remain.

Let's start with the volatility …

The restocking of companies boosted the activity at year end, without any increase in imports. The opposite effect has played in the first quarter. Despite the slowdown of GDP, domestic demand excluding inventories accelerated, rising by over 4% annual rate in the second quarter. The latest indicators (monthly or weekly) are obviously more worrying, especially in real estate.However, we do not rely on the construction as an engine of the economy!

What drives the U.S. economy?

Exports are an important driver. They rose 15% between mid-2009 and mid-2010 and continue to grow at a rate of 10% per annum. Investment in equipment has also greatly contributed to the recovery since late 2009.

What can we expect consumption?

Two elements of condition, the rate of savings and disposable income. Households who have seen their assets melt, have sought to rebuild their savings. Their savings rate, which now exceeds 6% – against less than 2% in 2007 – should now be stabilizing. Changes in consumption should therefore, over the next month, depending on that of their disposable income and therefore the payroll.So far, the increase in weekly hours of work allowed a reasonable growth of income despite the weakness in job creation. But after hours of work returned to normal, job creation of about 130,000 each month will be needed to avoid a recurrence of the activity. But the last three months, there was an average of only 50,000 jobs created in the private sector.

Is there any new stimulus package?

Even if they are significantly smaller than before the crisis, the leeway of economic policy are not necessarily zero. Two measures are also to be discreetly passed: an extension of the duration of unemployment benefits and federal funding of $ 26 billion to states. Americans are pragmatic: whether to again support the economy, they will.The Federal Reserve may also help prevent a recession by pushing more time to raise rates and, especially, in announcing a new program of buying shares of Treasury bonds.

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The U.S. growth revised sharply downwards

Radio Silence. Since the leaks to the press last July that Sanofi-Aventis has made an initial offer of $ 69 per share or 18.4 billion dollars, the pharmaceutical company and the American biotechnology company, Genzyme, have decided to no longer communicate on the subject. On the occasion of the publication of the results of the group in late July, the CEO of Sanofi-Aventis, Chris Viehbacher, confirmed to Le Figaro that the group will continue its acquisition policy. "We will continue to make acquisitions. We work on small and medium-sized operations. Small can be up to 5 billion dollars. The averages may reach twenty billion dollars. However, we do not want mega-mergers. ".

Between $ 75 and $ 80

A silence that analysts interpret as the beginning of discussions between the two parties.And, according to The Wall Street Journal, these negotiations have started badly. While Sanofi encamp on his positions, namely an initial offer of 69 dollars per share, the leaders of Genzyme seller would not be below 80 dollars. "I do not see Sanofi pay more than $ 80. However, the shareholders present capital of Genzyme – Relational and Carl Icahn – will not accept offers of less than 75 dollars, "said Hervé Manign, specializing in mergers and acquisitions. If Sanofi-Aventis declined to specify the amount of the envelope before it, the analysts amounting around 20 billion euros. The group comes easily to renegotiate a credit line of $ 7 billion to 2015.

"Sanofi is not obliged to do this operation"

If both parties wish that the discussions continue, they must s'entendrent on the initial offer."Genzyme is a very tempting prey for Sanofi, because it would allow him to catch up on organic products, which have the advantage of being more difficult to generics, said Herve Mangin. But Sanofi is not obliged to do this. On the one hand, an acquisition too expensive tarnish the good investments made by Chris Viehbacher since his arrival at the head of the group. On the other hand, it would force the group to increase its capital, which would reduce the value of the transaction.

A month ago, Sanofi-Aventis published in the second quarter sales up 4.6% to 7.8 billion euros, but down 1.2% at constant exchange rates. Net income from operations rose 7.6% to 2.5 billion (+4.5% at constant exchange rates).If the activity is driven by emerging markets (+19.4% organic growth for the half year), sales in Europe and the United States will continue to decline with further loss of patents, but after 2013 the group remains confident with the launch of new products. Sanofi-Aventis development Jevtana particularly in the treatment of prostate cancer has just been approved in the United States, and iniparib (BS1201) in the treatment of breast cancer.

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"Sanofi-Aventis confirmed its appetite for Genzyme

"The return of stock market battles

"Genzyme would be sold this winter

On Monday, the euro has exceeded a threshold important to the dollar. Crossing $ 1.32 per euro, the European currency has confirmed that his movement assessment started in June was solid. According to technical analysis, once reached this milestone, "there should be a rally towards $ 1.34."

The explanations are manifold, since by definition, when the exchange rate Euro / Dollar rises, it may come from a strong euro, but also a weaker dollar. In this case, currently, the two factors at play.

The euro rises

First, the rise of the euro reflects a growing confidence in Europe.If the euro has fallen more than 20% in less than six months, overwhelmed by the problems of sovereign debt, Greek, Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, etc.. Have even questioned the existence of the euro, European currency recovers while the EU has proven, with the IMF, she was desperate to save a member of the bankruptcy, and it would be tough on states to put in stringent budgetary policies.

The renewed confidence is also bolstered in recent weeks by a series of rather positive economic statistics in Europe. Especially in Germany.

The dollar drops

On the other hand, the dollar decline. First, the inverse relationship between changes in U.S. equity markets and the greenback continues to hold. But Wall Street has recovered well in July (7.18% on the month for the Dow Jones) and the month of August has begun.In reality, investors are becoming more appetite for risk and sell the dollar in favor of assets or currencies more risky.

On the other hand, the economic statistics on U.S. rather disappointed and shed doubt on the strength of the recovery across the Atlantic. Good reasons to abandon the dollar.

The yen is at its highest in fifteen years

The weaker dollar also largely explains the surge in the yen, which reached a higher Wednesday since April 1985. What open competitive Japanese companies, including the key word for success is export.

For three months, the dollar has lost 9.48% against the yen. A worrying trend: according to calculations by the OECD, a 10% appreciation of the yen would cut growth by 0.2 percentage points in the first year and 0.4 the second and third year."The impact is not significant when the forecast is 2-3% growth per annum over the next two years," relativized in a note Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale IPC.

According to Raymond Van der Putten, Japan specialist at BNP Paribas, "the yen's appreciation is mainly due to poor growth expectations in the United States."

IN BRIEF – Australian dollar and sterling

The doubling of the surplus balance of trade of Australia and its implications for sustained economic growth, has rekindled hopes of a future market for new rate hike by the Australian central bank, providing support this morning the Australian dollar.

In the United Kingdom, the earnings published by the UK banks have supported the pound sterling, which reached a high of six months against the U.S. dollar.

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"The rising yen is the least of worries for Tokyo

The Paris Bourse is scheduled to open in the green Monday. The market should be supported by the buoyant stock markets in Asia. The Nikkei closed up 0.35%, the Nikkei 225 index of blue chips gaining 33.01 points to 9570.31 points. In Shanghai, the stock opened up 0.39% Monday, as investors were apparently reassured by the slowdown in manufacturing activity in July, which shows that government efforts to cool the economy seem to be working. For its part, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong opened up 1.3%, the Hang Seng index gaining 272.2 points to 21,302.01 points in early trade.

The month of July was favorable to investors in Paris. In July, the CAC 40 was well recovered, compared to a decline in June and a memorable month of May in terms of poor performance.Between 1 July and this July 30, the index rose 9.1%. Since the beginning of the year, it remains a decline of 7.45%. Compared to a year ago, it was up 6.3%.

On the face values, we will monitor:

BNP Paribas announced on Monday its quarterly results before the market in good order. They are far beyond expectations, thanks to lower provisions.

France Telecom has entered into discussions with shareholders Meditel second operator in Morocco, to acquire 40% stake in it, according to the Moroccan weekly News, citing a potential investment of 650 million euros.

Eurazeo announced Saturday that entered into exclusive negotiations with the U.S. fund Carlyle for the sale of the hotel chain B & B.

The construction group Vinci has been chosen Friday by the Government for the concession and the construction of the airport at Notre-Dame-des-Landes, who should take over from the 2017 air services from Nantes-Atlantique.

Areva on Friday, as expected, half results penalized by an additional provision under the Finnish EPR OL3, but it confirmed its targets for 2010.

Eiffage has published a quarterly revenue up 2.2% and said its order book stood at EUR 10.8 billion at July 1 (+4.4% at constant since April 1 2010), more than 11 months of activity.

APRR – Arnaud Montebourg The socialist leader said it had seized the financial markets authority (AMF) to try and block the delisting of Autoroutes Paris Rhin Rhone (APRR) requested by Eiffarie, a joint venture of Eiffage the Australian Macquarie Group

The CAC 40 should remain cautious. Following a meeting that ended with some profit-taking, the leading index is expected to begin in Paris in the red a session that will be marked by the wait. Markets await in fact the first estimate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter to be announced this afternoon across the Atlantic. This Friday in Asia as investors remained on the defensive. Thursday already on Wall Street, the markets had signed a febrile very bearish session.

Besides GDP, the U.S. will publish the index of consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI. In Europe, German retail sales and GDP of the area will also be published.

Moreover, this last week's meeting will again be marked by a series of major business publications.

Alcatel Lucent revenues of 3.813 billion euros in the second quarter, up 17.4% sequentially and down 2.4% from the second quarter of last year. The group reiterated its outlook for 2010, including an adjusted operating income of between 1% and 5% of its revenues.

JCDecaux announced Friday a net profit in the first half of 65 million euros compared to 4.4 million euros over the same period in 2009. The group anticipates a change in organic revenue for the third quarter less than that of the second with a cash flow of 119 million euros, compared with -1.7 million euros in the first half.

Lafarge reported a sales increase of 2% to 4.43 billion euros in the second quarter. The group now provides a variation of the demand for cement between -1 and +3% in 2010 compared to 2009.Lafarge expects a reduction in capital expenditure to less than 1 billion euros in 2011.

EDF has announced a net profit group share 1.7 billion euros including a provision for $ 1.1 billion on its North American operations easy payday loans. Moreover, the EPR Flamanville, who has two years late, should produce marketable electricity in 2014, with construction costs re-estimated at around five billion euros.

EADS announces first half net profit of 185 million euros and a turnover of 20.3 billion euros. Adjusted operating income is 406 million euros. Its subsidiary Airbus raised its target for gross orders in 2010 to more than 400 aircraft. For Eurocopter, the sales increase for 2010 should exceed 44 billion euros.The adjusted EBIT target is maintained at one billion euros despite negative currency effects that are cumulative outstanding in the first half.

Schneider Electric releases a turnover of 8.57 billion euros in the first half (+10.5%) of which 4.661 billion (+18.5%) in the second. The group expects an increase in organic revenue in the second half "broadly comparable" to that of the first half and is now an EBITA margin of around 15.5% before restructuring costs and the impact of consolidation of distribution areva , against 14% previously.

Renault posted a turnover increase of 23.1% for first half of 2010 to the same perimeter, to 19.668 billion euros.The manufacturer profitable again, the latter standing at 823 million euros over the period cons net loss of 2.712 billion euros a year earlier.

PPR announced a net profit after minority interests rose 86.8% to 407 million euros in the first half. The turnover was 8.139 billion euros, representing organic growth of 1.7%.

Imerys has reported a net operating income rose sharply to 122 million euros (161%) in the first half with a turnover of organic growth of 16%.

Michelin and Total must follow.

The U.S. stock market should be reluctant to take on the leadership on Monday. The index futures are predicting a slight decline in opening of U.S. markets. The index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell back in effect respectively by 0.13% to 1099.50 points from 0.04% to 1873.10 points.

On Friday, the NYSE has ended sharply higher, buoyed by another round of quarterly results from U.S. companies of good quality and were reassured on the results of resistance testing in European banks. The Dow Jones gained 0.99% and the Nasdaq 1.05%. On the whole last week, the Dow Jones gained 3.23% and the Nasdaq rose 4.15%.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro steadied against the dollar. In the morning, it was worth 1.2901 dollars against 1.2906 dollars on Friday.

A busy week on the macroeconomic level.Today investors expect the sales figures for new housing. Another highlight, the U.S. central bank should publish its Beige Book Wednesday on the economic conditions. It will be very guarded while the president of the institution, Ben Bernanke said Wednesday before Congress the slow recovery, with no announcement of new funding in the economy.

On Tuesday, it is the Standard & Poor's / Case Schiller home prices and consumer confidence, which will be followed, before investors only look the next day on orders of durable goods. But it was the day Friday with the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. second quarter to be expected this week.This new burst of publications should be followed especially when investors are questioning the strength of new U.S. economic recovery No fax pay day loans.

U.S. companies are still likely to take stock in their accounts this week, including the program six companies forming part of Dow Jones. Tomorrow investors expect such figures CIT and Lockheed Martin and those sitting in the middle of DuPont.

To follow today the title of BP traded on Wall Street. The British press refers to a departure from the CEO of BP, before tomorrow, the date of publication of interim results of the oil giant.

Always on the side of values, General Electric said Friday its increased dividend of 20%, the quarterly dividend from 10 cents to 12 cents.GE also announced a resumption of its share repurchase programs. He had stopped this practice in September 2008. The board gave its approval for an additional $ 11.6 billion. "GE hopes to finish the year with $ 25 billion in cash, including proceeds from the sale of a majority stake in its subsidiary NBC Universal to Comcast" say the analysts at Aurel BGC. Some of this money will be used to buy three billion dollars in preferred shares that the group has sold to the holding company Berkshire Hathaway of Warren Buffett in October 2008.

Also note Friday night, the FDIC, the federal agency whose primary responsibility is to guarantee bank deposits, announced the bankruptcy of six new American banks, bringing to 102 the number of closing establishments since the beginning of year.These six failures will cost about 394 million dollars to its compensation fund the FDIC.

China has emerged unscathed from the slump that has upset the global financial system. "Last year, Chinese banks have been the arm of an expansionary monetary policy", said Yang Zaiping, executive vice president of the Association of Banks of China, during an interview with China Central Television (CCTV) last February.

In 2009, Chinese banks have indeed given some 9.6 trillion yuan (1.150 billion euros) in loans. A staggering amount, to the extent of the recovery plan of 4,000 billion yuan (430 billion euros) set up by Beijing in late 2008. The grants funds have exploded from 30% in China in 2009 and projected to grow further by about 18% in 2010, according to the World Bank. In the first five months of the year, loans have jumped 7.6%, reports the institution in its latest report on China on Friday.And despite the many measures adopted by the central government in recent months to limit the risk of bubble and soaring property prices.

The regulatory tightening is not the business of foreign banks operating in China. These institutions expect that the legislation, already significant concern in recent years, a rigid further, the survey shows "Foreign Banks in China" * PricewaterhouseCoopers, published recently.

Since the opening of the Chinese banking market, 11 December 2006, following China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, foreign banks have rushed into the breach. "The market share of foreign institutions is still limited to 2% today, after a slight decline in 2009," said Herve Demoy associated financial sector specialist with PricewaterhouseCoopers in France.

A share market still weak

And half of banks surveyed by the consulting firm believes that this market share will not increase in 2010. Access to the Chinese market is an obstacle course for foreign banks. Three paths are possible. First track, making participation in a local bank. "The regulations limit the non-Chinese banks at 20% equity stake, which limits the chances of key positions within schools," notes David Bernard, associate director of retail banking outside France's Societe Generale Group .

By buying in 2004 a 19.9% interest in Bank of Communications, the fifth largest commercial bank in China, one year after acquiring 8% stake in Bank of Shanghai regional bank, the HSBC Group has quickly made the bet external growth in China.The formation of a joint venture with a Chinese partner is a second possibility for foreign banks, but it is restricted to a specialized field, such as asset management or private sale.

A third solution is to create a subsidiary to 100% Chinese cheap payday advance. "To open an agency and develop a network, you must obtain multiple licenses for geographic location or product offering," according to David Bernard, who estimated five years the time required for a foreign bank, once obtained the license for its network covers all of its products and services. Especially since the rules limit the pace of network expansion of foreign banks to open a new parent agency by city and year or so a year to two agencies in a city where the bank is already established .Despite these obstacles, Societe Generale has decided to develop its own network in the Chinese territory, following the failed acquisition of Guangdong Development Bank (GDB) against Citigroup in 2006.

Chinese banks gaining momentum

The regulatory environment is not the only challenge facing foreign banks in China. Competition with Chinese banks has increased, following the implementation of the huge recovery plan, says PricewaterhouseCoopers."With the importance of their networks and their growing expertise, particularly in the development of innovative products, Chinese banks are now better equipped to cope with foreign competition," said Herve Demoy.

However, some foreign banking players fear a backlash for their Chinese competitors, which have multiplied the granting of credits or risk having to cope with non-performing loans to term. On the other hand, Chinese banks are not exactly the same target customers as their foreign counterparts.

"International banks are working with foreign companies that have operations in China," according to David Bernard. But not only. A new type of clientele grows. "Chinese companies are parties to conquer the world and foreign banks are focusing on those slots," says the head of Societe Generale.They support projects and Chinese actors in Africa, where Chinese banks are not present.

If the conquest of Mecca is difficult Chinese, foreign banks remain optimistic. "Most of them expect an increase of 10% to 20% of their activities in 2010," says PricewaterhouseCoopers. Their ability to adapt to playing in China will be the key to their success.

* PricewaterhouseCoopers presented its fifth survey on foreign banks in China, which follows four previous studies published since 2005.This survey was based on interviews conducted in January and February 2010 with CEOs and senior Chinese branches of foreign banks from 42 in Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

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Essilor, the world leader in ophthalmic optics, has released this Friday's turnover of the first quarter of 2010. It reached 905.8 million euros, up 7.8% over the previous year.

The Group's organic growth rose 2.5% thanks largely to strong sales in emerging markets and a gradual recovery in activity in mature countries. The rest of the group's growth came from acquisitions or equity investments during the quarter, seven in total, including FGX International, a leading North American sales of pre-mounted goggles.

At the time of publication of its 2009 annual results in early March, the Director General Hubert stated Sagnieres wait "growth between 5% and 7% excluding currency effects" of sales in 2010, indicating that the number of cases of this first quarter is in line with forecasts.In contrast, the group does not other forecasts for the full year 2010.

Large mechanical precision that are the engines of airliners are not certified against the effects of volcanic ash. "It protects engines vis-?-vis things like the ingestion of rain, of course, hail, sand … volcanic ash are rare events and highly variable, "said Jean-Paul Herteman, CEO of Safran, the parent company of the engine manufacturer Snecma, during a conference call.

Why are they so sensitive to dust Icelandic volcano? Because a reactor is a kind of vacuum overkill. "The engines are machines to suck air volumes extraordinary (…) They are sensitive to a certain level of ingestion of ashes," continued Jean-Paul Herteman.

No "miracle technology"

And the ashes are a phenomenon so rare that manufacturers will focus their attention."This is a subject that is not standardized at this stage by the certification regulations and civil aviation", according to the head. "The current priorities are in terms of fuel consumption, emission of greenhouse gas emissions and noise. (…) If certification is evolving and the demand of course we look at what should be done. "But do not expect" miracles of technology, "he pleaded. Especially since the composition of the ash may vary, it says at Safran.

The British engine manufacturer's Roll Royce has to share content with a press statement that the group is working with the rest of the sector to ensure that the impact of volcanic ash on our engines would be properly understood. "

Two Finnish fighter F-18, last Thursday, and an F-16 NATO on Monday, were damaged engine after flying in the cloud of ash."The engines of fighter aircraft are most vulnerable from this point of view than those of airliners," says one in the French engine. Airbus conducted flight tests on Monday between France and Germany with long-haul A380 and A340. "The crew did not notice anything unusual and technical inspection showed no irregularity in the future", said the aircraft manufacturer.

The pilots union European ECA (European Cockpit Association) has called on Monday not to sacrifice security in favor of economic considerations. The ECA, representing 38,200 pilots and crews in 36 countries, said that some of its members were confronted with the effects "extremely abrasive and clogging" of volcanic particles.

The air nozzles and blade cooling systems measure only a hundred microns.They can easily be blocked by volcanic particles are vitrified, told AFP Michel Gliniasty Scientific Director General at ONERA (French Aerospace Research Center). 'The old engines are more durable.'

It is a non-final, which sounds like a challenge to international pressure: the Icelanders did not want to spend their lives to pay the bill left the bank Icesave. Saturday, they have rejected more than 93%, the repayment plan to Great Britain and the Netherlands for around 3.8 billion euros, lost in the collapse of Icesave, in October 2008. A firm that could pay off: yesterday, said London was ready to "be flexible" in the coming negotiations.

"There is every reason to congratulate the people of Iceland. The result was clear, "welcomed the President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson. In January, he had refused to sign the bill says Icesave, narrowly passed by Parliament. Under public pressure, he preferred to call a referendum."The public understands that we must be treated as a sovereign nation and not be intimidated by the British or Dutch," exclaimed Magnus Arni Skulason, founder of the movement indefence opposed to the agreement Icesave. For indefence it was deeply unfair to place too heavy a bill – 100 euros per capita per month for eight years – on the shoulders of a ruined country.

London said he was "flexible"

After a strange country where no one had called to vote yes, this result is "not a shock to the government," relativized the first Social Democrat Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir. Like several of his ministers, she herself had chosen to abstain … But such a tidal wave put the coalition into a corner cash advance america ."These results represent a serious warning to the government, says Olafur Isleifsson, professor of economics at Reykjavik University. By abstaining in the vote crucial to the nation, they showed that they were very distant from the people. "

Rejecting any possibility of resignation, Johanna Sigurdardottir said there was "(our) duty to resume negotiations" with London and The Hague. "It is important that we do so as quickly as possible," added the Minister of Finance, Steingrimur Sigfusson.It would be difficult (to reach an agreement) if we approached the elections too. "The elections are due in May in Britain and in June in the Netherlands.

To the President of Iceland, the ball is now in the court of London: "The main question now is: what will Gordon Brown?" The British finance minister, Alistair Darling, responded on Sunday: "We are prepared to be flexible "he admitted, noting that the reimbursement would require" many, many years. " As the government of The Hague, he assured to remain "involved in finding a solution."

Another failure of talks might push a little further in the Iceland crisis, delaying a bailout plan of 3.3 billion euros pledged by the IMF and Nordic countries.Some analysts say it could hamper his candidacy for the European Union, giving London and The Hague a reason to oppose it.