Three years after his fall, Iceland remains fragile
Posted by admin on October 21st, 2011"The euro is a rock against the crisis. "This declaration of Gylfi Arnbjornsson, President of Iceland's largest union, released in turmoil in the euro area, out of place. "While a small floating national currency increases the flexibility and affects employees," he insists. Bryndis, she does not believe more in the EU and the euro area. "It does not work. The crown, however, allowed us to emerge quickly from the crisis, "said the young woman, who works in a bookstore, very committed to the sovereignty of his country. These two strong views illustrate the gap between pro-and anti-Europe.
Iceland began on June 27 last formal negotiations to enter the European Union. At the end, Icelanders will vote in a referendum.The challenge for the small island in the far north that is just three years of severe recession, is to join the single currency.
The debate in Reykjavik is far from settled, including the center-left coalition government, like the Minister of Economy Social Democratic supporter of the euro and its counterpart of Finance defends the virtues of the crown.
"The devaluation of over 40% has boosted the competitiveness of our exports. The gain exceeds the final cost. Unemployment would have been much worse, "says Green Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson. With two key economic sectors: aluminum and fishing account for 80% of exports. In this land swept by the waters and winds so imposing nature, the farm lobby and fishing make their voices heard. They reject the decisions of Brussels and its quotas.Yet, in fact, Iceland is already integrated into the European Union.
The case "Icesave" three years ago that poisons relations with Great Britain and the Netherlands also maintained Euroscepticism. The State has spent 15% of GDP to save its national banks but refused to compensate the foreign customers of the bank Icesave, bankruptcy. An early decision of the European Court of Justice could force Reykjavik to set the slate of 8 billion euros. "The bank Landsbanki has the means to repay by selling its assets revalued since the crisis," said the minister.
Indebtedness
Three years to regain control of the IMF, the economy drastically, radical restructuring of the banks have put the country on track for growth, helped by a crown devalued on line pay day loans.In the field, if the maintenance of a welfare state and the strength of social ties, related to the geography of the place and its small population, have reduced the impact, the crisis is far from over. Reflecting Hildigunnur Sverrisdottir, 35, architect, married with three children. "We are living a nightmare, every month, our debts pile up, we have no visibility and perspective," she confesses.
This family alone synthesizes all the symptoms of the crisis Iceland: Hidlig lost his job after the explosion of the housing bubble, the couple bought a house at full price. They chose a loan in foreign currency – yen, Swiss franc and euro – more attractive as deemed stable and offering lower interest rates. This not to mention local specificity to index mortgages on inflation, which reached its highest, 18%.Result, many Icelanders have seen the value of their loans soar. "In my generation, everyone has lost an average of 10 million crowns," says Hubert Koziet, who suffered a pay cut and an increase of one third of its credit.
Unable to repay their credit, Hidlig and her husband were offered a government program, reserved for owners 13 .500, which is to cap credit 110% of the value of the dwelling and convert crown. "We do not know what to do, we are still negotiating with our bank, we do not rule out leaving the country. Many of our friends, architect, engineer, accountant … went to Denmark and the United States. "
Counter the brain drain and attract new investment, are the future challenges for sustainable growth in Iceland. Because the economy remains crippled by capital controls and political instability.Ironically, today is not money that is lacking in the small island – banks are full of capital that the Icelanders and businesses could exfiltrer abroad – but it suffers from a lack of confidence in the future and the political elites.
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