I believe more in a low growth as a relapse of the activity. There have been a very sharp slowdown, as the pace of growth fell from 5% at end 2009 to 1.6%. These figures, subject to some volatility, however, overstate the true extent of the downturn even if the coming quarters, many uncertainties remain.

Let's start with the volatility …

The restocking of companies boosted the activity at year end, without any increase in imports. The opposite effect has played in the first quarter. Despite the slowdown of GDP, domestic demand excluding inventories accelerated, rising by over 4% annual rate in the second quarter. The latest indicators (monthly or weekly) are obviously more worrying, especially in real estate.However, we do not rely on the construction as an engine of the economy!

What drives the U.S. economy?

Exports are an important driver. They rose 15% between mid-2009 and mid-2010 and continue to grow at a rate of 10% per annum. Investment in equipment has also greatly contributed to the recovery since late 2009.

What can we expect consumption?

Two elements of condition, the rate of savings and disposable income. Households who have seen their assets melt, have sought to rebuild their savings. Their savings rate, which now exceeds 6% – against less than 2% in 2007 – should now be stabilizing. Changes in consumption should therefore, over the next month, depending on that of their disposable income and therefore the payroll.So far, the increase in weekly hours of work allowed a reasonable growth of income despite the weakness in job creation. But after hours of work returned to normal, job creation of about 130,000 each month will be needed to avoid a recurrence of the activity. But the last three months, there was an average of only 50,000 jobs created in the private sector.

Is there any new stimulus package?

Even if they are significantly smaller than before the crisis, the leeway of economic policy are not necessarily zero. Two measures are also to be discreetly passed: an extension of the duration of unemployment benefits and federal funding of $ 26 billion to states. Americans are pragmatic: whether to again support the economy, they will.The Federal Reserve may also help prevent a recession by pushing more time to raise rates and, especially, in announcing a new program of buying shares of Treasury bonds.

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Between $ 75 and $ 80

A silence that analysts interpret as the beginning of discussions between the two parties.And, according to The Wall Street Journal, these negotiations have started badly. While Sanofi encamp on his positions, namely an initial offer of 69 dollars per share, the leaders of Genzyme seller would not be below 80 dollars. "I do not see Sanofi pay more than $ 80. However, the shareholders present capital of Genzyme – Relational and Carl Icahn – will not accept offers of less than 75 dollars, "said Hervé Manign, specializing in mergers and acquisitions. If Sanofi-Aventis declined to specify the amount of the envelope before it, the analysts amounting around 20 billion euros. The group comes easily to renegotiate a credit line of $ 7 billion to 2015.

"Sanofi is not obliged to do this operation"

If both parties wish that the discussions continue, they must s'entendrent on the initial offer."Genzyme is a very tempting prey for Sanofi, because it would allow him to catch up on organic products, which have the advantage of being more difficult to generics, said Herve Mangin. But Sanofi is not obliged to do this. On the one hand, an acquisition too expensive tarnish the good investments made by Chris Viehbacher since his arrival at the head of the group. On the other hand, it would force the group to increase its capital, which would reduce the value of the transaction.

A month ago, Sanofi-Aventis published in the second quarter sales up 4.6% to 7.8 billion euros, but down 1.2% at constant exchange rates. Net income from operations rose 7.6% to 2.5 billion (+4.5% at constant exchange rates).If the activity is driven by emerging markets (+19.4% organic growth for the half year), sales in Europe and the United States will continue to decline with further loss of patents, but after 2013 the group remains confident with the launch of new products. Sanofi-Aventis development Jevtana particularly in the treatment of prostate cancer has just been approved in the United States, and iniparib (BS1201) in the treatment of breast cancer.

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The deal also further secures the future capital of Ubisoft, uncertain after the departure of its main shareholder, the American Electronic Arts last week. With the sale of 15% held by the latter is the Guillemot family, which became the largest shareholder with a stake in Ubisoft to 11.3%.The FMS and the Guillemot brothers now control over 25% of voting rights.

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The issuance volume of prepaid titles, the key measures for the sector, up by 7.5% to 6.615 billion euros in the first half, in line with the annual target growth of 6% to 14% in the medium term set by the group.

The activity was led by Latin America region, which posts revenue up 4.9% to 181 million euros. "The strong growth in operational activity in Latin America offsets an economic environment still difficult in Europe," notes the group.This region is indeed a cash decrease of 5.3% to 79 million euros over the same period.

The turnover of the financial group fell from 25.6% to 39 million euros, weighed down by "the low level of interest rates," according Edenred.

Chouchou brokers

Edenred, which develops on land Sodexo, Compass Group or Mastercard and Visa, should still jump on the stock exchange after advertising 100% free credit report. Introduced last July 2 at a reference price of 11.40 euros, still have won titles this Monday 1.37% to 13.30 euros, giving a market capitalization of around three billion euros.

The new entity has the benefit of brokers. Most recently, Goldman Sachs who recommends buying the title with a target price of 18 euros."Edenred should long-term growth and profitability linkage, analysts also noted the CM-CIC Securities. The broker Aurel bgc, hailed for its part "the potential for development" on the market for vouchers.

For the second half, Edenred does not change in sight. "It follows the same trend. In Europe, we do not see the restart of employment, which is a trigger of our volumes, "said CEO Jacques Stern during a conference call.

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The global study was conducted among 136,000 people in 132 countries between 2005 and 2006. His basic premise: there are two definitions of happiness. On the one hand, happiness linked to a sense of well-being. On the other, that which is derived from specific moments of joy.If the first definition depends largely on personal income and wealth of the state in which one lives, the second responds rather to how psychological and social needs of all are met, the researchers said Gallup.

Yet with the highest GDP per capita in the world (46,400 dollars per capita, according to the CIA), the U.S. can only 16th in the ranking prepared by Gallup in regard to the general welfare, and only in 26th position out of 132 in terms of moments of satisfaction. The Americans were upstaged by the Danes, who are happiest with a general point of view, and by New Zealanders, who are champions of the moments of joy. Far from the United States, Denmark is the 31st worldwide in terms of GDP per capita ($ 36,000 in 2009) and New Zealand 51st (to 27,300 dollars), according to CIA data.

The importance of social relationships

"While enriched with a sense of general satisfaction on his life, it is perhaps not as big an impact than we imagine how we appreciate each moment," says Ed Diener, a researcher at the University of Illinois and in Gallup. The researcher stresses the importance of "quality of social relations" in the lives of everyone. He cites, for example, Costa Rica, despite income levels below those of South Korea, would have a population happier.

One issue that has also gained ground in France. To determine the limits of GDP as an indicator of social progress, President Nicolas Sarkozy in 2008 mandated a committee chaired by Professor Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize in economics.Its report, delivered in late 2009, believes that there is often "a gap between declared, first, the usual measures of major socio-economic variables such as growth, inflation, unemployment, etc.., And, Moreover, widespread perceptions of these realities. " The Committee also questioned "the relevance of these data as a tool to measure societal well-being."

The adage has limits

For example, northern Europe and Anglo-Saxon beautiful lie on top of the global economic scale, these areas have nothing to envy of Latin America, which is relatively well positioned in the rankings of Gallup . This reasoning, however, limits. "Many if not most people want and run after money for most of their days, in fact, admit the authors of the study.Unsurprisingly, the countries of Africa's poorest arrive back of the pack, and this, in the two rankings of happiness!

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In contrast, Hong Kong, the trend is clearly down because the benchmark Hang Seng yield 1.38%. In Australia, the Sydney Stock Exchange ahead slightly (+0.1%).

The mining stocks rose

In Tokyo, the market is mainly guided by higher mining shares following the downward revision of tax on the profits of these companies decided by the Australian government. This has encouraged new JX Holdings Inc., an oil refiner and producer of copper jumped 3.5%.Inpex, oil explorer, rose 3.2%. Komatsu, the largest manufacturer of earthmoving Asia, gaining 1.5%.

In contrast, the values are auto oriented down significantly, especially for Honda (-1.89%) and Toyota (-2.27%), after the monthly statistics considered disappointing sales in the United States.

Evolution contrast to oil

On the oil market, crude prices were mixed in electronic trading. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for August delivery gained 18 cents to 73.13 dollars a barrel, while Brent North Sea for delivery in August, yielding six cents to 72.28 dollars. Oil prices fell Thursday in New York on a market worried that sent the barrel under $ 73.

Volatility remains high on the market

Investors remain nervous about the possibility that the slower recovery of the global economy becomes more pronounced. On Friday afternoon will be known monthly unemployment statistics in the United States before the opening of Wall Street. They could reflect a deterioration of the labor market for the first time since December, according to economists.

The indicators Thursday were accentuated anxieties of investors. The ISM index of activity in the manufacturing sector declined more than expected to 56.2%. On the front real estate, the promise of selling homes fell more than expected in May (-30%). In China also, the two indices of purchasing managers showed a slowdown in manufacturing activity in June

In an interview with the Politico newspaper, Bush even mentions a "September 11th green." The environmental disaster in progress "will push us to rethink our energy and environmental policy," he said.The tragedy that is played off the coast shows that it is time "to transition" to new energy sources, "said Obama, whose administration is trying to push through Congress legislation to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas emissions.

Sequestration of payment of dividend BP

The president must give a formal speech to the nation Tuesday night, broadcast live from the Oval Office. Such a device intervention is rare. It reflects not only the seriousness of the situation but also the new turn of the screw that the U.S. government wants to give his handling of the disaster.

Thus, the Obama administration requires that the oil put under receivership on payment of its dividend. The goal is to create a fund to pay the damages claimed by the victims of the disaster.Barack Obama said he hoped an agreement with BP on this fund will be concluded by Wednesday. "We have begun preliminary discussions to develop a device that claims to be justified not only presented tomorrow or next week, but over the coming months, to be treated justly, fairly and quickly," said Barack Obama. On Sunday, the adviser to the White House, David Axelrod said "BP has the resources to cover the damage and we will make sure they will do well."

Discussions in BP

The oil group did not show opposition to the creation of such a fund. According to the British press, the English major is preparing to announce a postponement of payment of dividend payable for the second quarter.In addition, BP could lose control of its oil and natural gas in the U.S. and be allowed to have business with the federal government as a penalty. But that does not stop there. BP could also pay a fine of up to $ 8.6 billion under Oil Pollution Act.

This greater commitment of the Obama administration to want to pay BP is poorly perceived by investors. At the London Stock Exchange, the title of the oil finished down 9.30% to 355.45 pence. It is the largest decline in the FTSE, which terminates the session to share up 0.74%. In New York, BP shares are no better. They finished down 9.71% to 31.67 dollars on a market down by 0.2. After sessions particularly volatile oil of the title had already sold nearly 10% last week.Since the beginning of the accident, the market value of BP was reduced by almost 44%.

Ultra-mediated, the World Cup is one of the most watched sporting events on the planet.Fanatical football fans and casual parties are before the football games the most essential. "I'm not a football fan, said Arnaud, network engineer for 24 years, but I'll watch the matches of the France team and the greatest teams like Spain and Brazil. But if the blow of sending many matches will be whistled at 20:30, other meetings will take place during the day. So, how employees will organize themselves to watch the highly anticipated match between France to South Africa and will be held June 22 … 16 hours?

Sites streaming and mobile phone

Fortunately, new technology makes it easy to watch the games away from home. After radio and television screens, salvation will come from streaming websites and mobile phones."I think working together to turn the match back on the computer, and I'll have a look occasionally," says Sebastian, a Marseille football addict who nevertheless adds that his "priority is work." "We will release the iPhone," says his side an employee of a company of mutual fund also defends his dedication: "we have the right to play it if everyone does his job." His team has even organized together to bet on the outcome of games.

For football fans are lucky, their boss shares the same passion (or includes) and installed a screen in the office. "We bought a TV for Roland Garros, the World Cup and also for the financial news networks anyway," says Bruno, an analyst in a asset management company, "we will light according to general opinion, and it will mute the sound, as Roland Garros.

Productivity in danger?

In these circumstances, the World Cup could have an impact on global productivity? Yes, according to the company Blue Coat Systems specializes in security and networking applications that points to the bandwidth consumed by access to streaming soccer matches, to the detriment of professional priorities bad credit pay day loans.

"Many employees are unaware of the effect of video streaming over a network, said Nigel Hawthorn of Blue Coat Systems. This is the first World Cup where there are as many opportunities to watch the games online and interact with our friends and colleagues on social networking sites.Knowing that a football match watched streaming consumes about 750MB of bandwidth – is sending more than a dozen copies of Tolstoy's War and Peace – it is important that IT professionals and human resources to communicate employees clear rules.

"A question full of traps"

But Didier Primault, economist at the Center for Law and Economics of Sports, the Economic Impact of the World Cup is a particularly complicated problem to solve. "The impact may even be positive, he notes, there is more enthusiasm when France wins after a joke among colleagues!". We can actually remember the wave of enthusiasm generated by the victory of the Blues in 1998.In general, the economist points out that many professions do not allow access to a screen to watch the game and the duration of the competition is too short, just over a month to have a real impact on economy.

"It comes full of traps" answers Didier Primault, referring to "substitution effects" that allow some sectors to benefit from slowing further. And, even noting a change in productivity during the World Cup, there is no evidence that the sporting event is the cause. Many other factors must indeed be factored into the calculation of productivity, such as unemployment or even the climate situation.

But historically, the economist says, despite the impact of the 98 World Cup, "France has a lower demand for sports entertainment" than other countries like Great Britain.Moreover, according to the poll by Monster, 61% of French respondents say they are not interested in the World Cup, the world average but well behind the Italians (39%), Irish (40%), British ( 53 %)… and especially the few hundred Malaysians who participated in the survey: 85% of them are excited by the adventures of South African players and loans to 44% to defy a ban on employers to watch the games. Beyond cultural differences, doubts about the 2010 vintage lights may prevent the French workers to dissipate this year …

On Friday, BP has reaffirmed its intention to announce to its shareholders on July 27 the amount of its interim dividend by way of the second quarter.Dividends paid by the group representing some 10.5 billion dollars (8.7 billion euros) per year.

Yet another bad news for the oil group that is not due to his inability to pay, but the fact that the U.S. authorities there are not favorable. "It does me no problem that BP complies with its legal obligations (to its shareholders, Ed), but I want them to know they have a moral and legal obligations here in the Gulf, warned Tuesday Barack Obama.

The U.S. authorities have also sent an ultimatum to compel them to BP by unveiling its plans to 72 hours to stop the leak.

"BP must state its plans for its parallel initiatives ongoing and alternative oil recovery, including establishing a timetable within 72 hours after receipt of this letter," says the letter from the admiral-cons Coastguard James Watson chief operating officer of BP, Doug Suttles, and dated Tuesday.

With the installation of a funnel, BP has accelerated since last week the recovery of oil leaking from the wells to 1,500 meters below the surface of the water for more than seven weeks. But the water continues to move towards the U.S. coast and crude oil continues to flow.

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Sanofi-Aventis issued a net profit from growing 9.7% to 2.427 billion euros at constant exchange rates. It's better than expected. The consensus reached by Reuters stood at 2.28 rather billion. Reduced to an action, the net earnings from spring up 9.4% to 1.86 euro. Good performance also operational. Operating income rose 6.5% to 3.3 billion euros while sales reached 7.38 billion euros, up 3.9%.

So the vaccines business that has been the source of this performance fast cash now.This branch has indeed registered a 56% to 944 million euros, 413 million euros on sales of vaccines against H1N1.

Sanofi-Aventis confirmed its 2010 targets

The world number four from the pharmacy always think to do for all of fiscal 2010 to grow its earnings per share from continuing operations of between 2% and 5% at constant exchange rates, "unless major unexpected adverse events .

The group said in a statement that this forecast reflects the input of generic medicines market in 2009 and sales of H1N1 vaccines in the fourth quarter of 2009. They also include the expected impact of health reform in the United States.

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