I believe more in a low growth as a relapse of the activity. There have been a very sharp slowdown, as the pace of growth fell from 5% at end 2009 to 1.6%. These figures, subject to some volatility, however, overstate the true extent of the downturn even if the coming quarters, many uncertainties remain.

Let's start with the volatility …

The restocking of companies boosted the activity at year end, without any increase in imports. The opposite effect has played in the first quarter. Despite the slowdown of GDP, domestic demand excluding inventories accelerated, rising by over 4% annual rate in the second quarter. The latest indicators (monthly or weekly) are obviously more worrying, especially in real estate.However, we do not rely on the construction as an engine of the economy!

What drives the U.S. economy?

Exports are an important driver. They rose 15% between mid-2009 and mid-2010 and continue to grow at a rate of 10% per annum. Investment in equipment has also greatly contributed to the recovery since late 2009.

What can we expect consumption?

Two elements of condition, the rate of savings and disposable income. Households who have seen their assets melt, have sought to rebuild their savings. Their savings rate, which now exceeds 6% – against less than 2% in 2007 – should now be stabilizing. Changes in consumption should therefore, over the next month, depending on that of their disposable income and therefore the payroll.So far, the increase in weekly hours of work allowed a reasonable growth of income despite the weakness in job creation. But after hours of work returned to normal, job creation of about 130,000 each month will be needed to avoid a recurrence of the activity. But the last three months, there was an average of only 50,000 jobs created in the private sector.

Is there any new stimulus package?

Even if they are significantly smaller than before the crisis, the leeway of economic policy are not necessarily zero. Two measures are also to be discreetly passed: an extension of the duration of unemployment benefits and federal funding of $ 26 billion to states. Americans are pragmatic: whether to again support the economy, they will.The Federal Reserve may also help prevent a recession by pushing more time to raise rates and, especially, in announcing a new program of buying shares of Treasury bonds.

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The U.S. growth revised sharply downwards

Sales of existing properties and have hit a 15-year low in July. The June sales have they been revised downward to 5.26 million units, against 5.37 previously.

These figures are certainly worse than expected catastrophic but are not a total surprise. They indeed correspond to the decision of the tax credit established by the Federal Government to support sales. "Citizens are very rationally rushed on the market before the expiry of the measure in May," says Laurence Yun, chief economist of the NAR."Since that date, signature of contracts of sale were far less numerous. Expect a break until late September. "Other economists expect a further slide in sales volumes until 2011.

The month of July was favorable to investors in Paris. In July, the CAC 40 was well recovered, compared to a decline in June and a memorable month of May in terms of poor performance.Between 1 July and this July 30, the index rose 9.1%. Since the beginning of the year, it remains a decline of 7.45%. Compared to a year ago, it was up 6.3%.

On the face values, we will monitor:

BNP Paribas announced on Monday its quarterly results before the market in good order. They are far beyond expectations, thanks to lower provisions.

France Telecom has entered into discussions with shareholders Meditel second operator in Morocco, to acquire 40% stake in it, according to the Moroccan weekly News, citing a potential investment of 650 million euros.

Eurazeo announced Saturday that entered into exclusive negotiations with the U.S. fund Carlyle for the sale of the hotel chain B & B.

The construction group Vinci has been chosen Friday by the Government for the concession and the construction of the airport at Notre-Dame-des-Landes, who should take over from the 2017 air services from Nantes-Atlantique.

Areva on Friday, as expected, half results penalized by an additional provision under the Finnish EPR OL3, but it confirmed its targets for 2010.

Eiffage has published a quarterly revenue up 2.2% and said its order book stood at EUR 10.8 billion at July 1 (+4.4% at constant since April 1 2010), more than 11 months of activity.

APRR – Arnaud Montebourg The socialist leader said it had seized the financial markets authority (AMF) to try and block the delisting of Autoroutes Paris Rhin Rhone (APRR) requested by Eiffarie, a joint venture of Eiffage the Australian Macquarie Group

On Friday, the NYSE has ended sharply higher, buoyed by another round of quarterly results from U.S. companies of good quality and were reassured on the results of resistance testing in European banks. The Dow Jones gained 0.99% and the Nasdaq 1.05%. On the whole last week, the Dow Jones gained 3.23% and the Nasdaq rose 4.15%.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro steadied against the dollar. In the morning, it was worth 1.2901 dollars against 1.2906 dollars on Friday.

A busy week on the macroeconomic level.Today investors expect the sales figures for new housing. Another highlight, the U.S. central bank should publish its Beige Book Wednesday on the economic conditions. It will be very guarded while the president of the institution, Ben Bernanke said Wednesday before Congress the slow recovery, with no announcement of new funding in the economy.

On Tuesday, it is the Standard & Poor's / Case Schiller home prices and consumer confidence, which will be followed, before investors only look the next day on orders of durable goods. But it was the day Friday with the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. second quarter to be expected this week.This new burst of publications should be followed especially when investors are questioning the strength of new U.S. economic recovery No fax pay day loans.

U.S. companies are still likely to take stock in their accounts this week, including the program six companies forming part of Dow Jones. Tomorrow investors expect such figures CIT and Lockheed Martin and those sitting in the middle of DuPont.

To follow today the title of BP traded on Wall Street. The British press refers to a departure from the CEO of BP, before tomorrow, the date of publication of interim results of the oil giant.

Always on the side of values, General Electric said Friday its increased dividend of 20%, the quarterly dividend from 10 cents to 12 cents.GE also announced a resumption of its share repurchase programs. He had stopped this practice in September 2008. The board gave its approval for an additional $ 11.6 billion. "GE hopes to finish the year with $ 25 billion in cash, including proceeds from the sale of a majority stake in its subsidiary NBC Universal to Comcast" say the analysts at Aurel BGC. Some of this money will be used to buy three billion dollars in preferred shares that the group has sold to the holding company Berkshire Hathaway of Warren Buffett in October 2008.

Also note Friday night, the FDIC, the federal agency whose primary responsibility is to guarantee bank deposits, announced the bankruptcy of six new American banks, bringing to 102 the number of closing establishments since the beginning of year.These six failures will cost about 394 million dollars to its compensation fund the FDIC.

LE FIGARO. – Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday he would keep both the tax shield and the ISF. Defend yourself always the opposite?

Jean ARTHUIS. – Yes. I think we should remove the two devices. The shield is a bad answer to a bad tax, the ISF. This shield has too many defects. It is calculated on income tax, not real income. Its beneficiaries are beyond any possible tax increase. This is clearly not fair.

Precisely, the government released the shield fiscal measures to finance the pensions …

Yes, but suddenly the complexity increases. Daring to break the taboos and radically simplify tax by removing the shield and the ISF.To finance this deletion, I propose to create an additional income tax (IR) to 45% and increase the scale of taxation on capital gains and real estate. I will table an amendment during consideration of the budget 2011, in the fall.

This option does not penalized Does not those with high salaries but little fortune?

No. The rate of 45% is a marginal rate, which would apply that beyond 100,000 euros per share. RI takes into account family responsibilities. And there is a 10% reduction on wages. In fact, it is mostly capital gains on shares or real estate, which enrich.

Should we raise taxes?

France can not escape the tax increases. Because the plan proposed by the Government alone will not reduce the public deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013. The growth assumption of 2.5% is unrealistic and inadequate conservation measures.It lacks about 50 billion euros. Besides reducing costs, I propose that VAT in particular the restoration and renovation for housing increased from 5.5% to a rate between 10% and 12%. To restore our competitiveness and combat unemployment, it would even raise without waiting the standard rate of VAT, currently 19.6%. Funding for Medicare and family policy must no longer weigh on earnings. VAT must take over.

At the risk of penalizing low-income households?

Is there any greater injustice than unemployment? By maintaining too high levies on production, is pushed to the relocation. All taxes are ultimately paid by the consumer. For a company that sees its tax increase raises its price. The additional VAT on imported goods will.

Should we cut more in the niches?

Yes.The tax shelters cost 75 billion euros. They are undermining the social compact, by making the tax illegible, unfair and inefficient. In addition, the pricing becomes artificial. Ultimately, we must consider deleting the niches, and especially stop creating new ones. Without the increase of the reduced rate of VAT, the government will have great difficulty in meeting its commitments, that is to say an economy 10 billion in two years. The overall ceiling should be lowered.

The government is strong enough on public spending?

During the hearings the Committee on Finance, I had the impression that some ministers were not always aware of the savings. However, it will be necessary to act with determination.Hack 66 billion in credit assistance amounts to touch on sensitive issues such as individual housing (PLA) or subsidies Réseau Ferré de France (RFF). I would add that it is not easy to force parastatal structures to decrease by 10% of their operating expenses. These organizations, ranging from museums to Météo-France, served as space flight for public expenditure.

Should we freeze the salaries of civil servants?

Despite job cuts, the state's payroll increased from 860 million in 2009. This increase is due to wage concessions and changes of the index. Strict moderation is essential.

As a senator from Mayenne, what do you think the value of blocking the funds that the State grants to local communities? This gel can be leveraged to conduct the review of local public policies.Do we really redo roundabouts standards expensive? Especially, the proliferation of standards must end. Premier promised. Despite this, the agricultural modernization law gives the government a right of limitation on the school lunch menu!

France will she one day a zero deficit?

It must. An overburdened state is in the hands of its creditors and threatens the solidarity between generations. This national independence is at stake.

In contrast, Hong Kong, the trend is clearly down because the benchmark Hang Seng yield 1.38%. In Australia, the Sydney Stock Exchange ahead slightly (+0.1%).

The mining stocks rose

In Tokyo, the market is mainly guided by higher mining shares following the downward revision of tax on the profits of these companies decided by the Australian government. This has encouraged new JX Holdings Inc., an oil refiner and producer of copper jumped 3.5%.Inpex, oil explorer, rose 3.2%. Komatsu, the largest manufacturer of earthmoving Asia, gaining 1.5%.

In contrast, the values are auto oriented down significantly, especially for Honda (-1.89%) and Toyota (-2.27%), after the monthly statistics considered disappointing sales in the United States.

Evolution contrast to oil

On the oil market, crude prices were mixed in electronic trading. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for August delivery gained 18 cents to 73.13 dollars a barrel, while Brent North Sea for delivery in August, yielding six cents to 72.28 dollars. Oil prices fell Thursday in New York on a market worried that sent the barrel under $ 73.

Volatility remains high on the market

Investors remain nervous about the possibility that the slower recovery of the global economy becomes more pronounced. On Friday afternoon will be known monthly unemployment statistics in the United States before the opening of Wall Street. They could reflect a deterioration of the labor market for the first time since December, according to economists.

The indicators Thursday were accentuated anxieties of investors. The ISM index of activity in the manufacturing sector declined more than expected to 56.2%. On the front real estate, the promise of selling homes fell more than expected in May (-30%). In China also, the two indices of purchasing managers showed a slowdown in manufacturing activity in June

In March, the caseload had dropped by 12,000, a first since its inception in June 2009.In eleven months, the number of beneficiaries of the "RSA activity" has increased by 51.5% although it remains far from the goal originally posted by Martin Hirsch third of the "target population" in benefits really now, against 90% target by the "father" of RSA.

Same trend in May

Question cost, RSA will cost 649millions euros in April to the community (543millions for "RSA base" and 106millions for "RSA activity") and more than 6.62 billion since its inception, including 15% for "RSA activity, funded by a 1.1% tax on capital income.

The rise of "RSA activity" is "a sign of an upturn in activity or the beginning of the crisis, hopefully it to the government. People are starting to take odd jobs: the very low-paid full-time or part-time.This trend would be "confirmed or accentuated a bit" according préchiffres May.

For the current Minister for Active Solidarity – which has never believed in original intent of scalability of the "RSA activity" – there are two other explanations. "Many people have been slow to apply for RSA business because they did not know they were entitled, because they would not feel stigmatized because it was complicated," says Marc-Philippe Daubresse that present in early July a plan to simplify the RSA. The departments have also been slow to organize the information flow and are currently optimizing their practices. "

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Ultra-mediated, the World Cup is one of the most watched sporting events on the planet.Fanatical football fans and casual parties are before the football games the most essential. "I'm not a football fan, said Arnaud, network engineer for 24 years, but I'll watch the matches of the France team and the greatest teams like Spain and Brazil. But if the blow of sending many matches will be whistled at 20:30, other meetings will take place during the day. So, how employees will organize themselves to watch the highly anticipated match between France to South Africa and will be held June 22 … 16 hours?

Sites streaming and mobile phone

Fortunately, new technology makes it easy to watch the games away from home. After radio and television screens, salvation will come from streaming websites and mobile phones."I think working together to turn the match back on the computer, and I'll have a look occasionally," says Sebastian, a Marseille football addict who nevertheless adds that his "priority is work." "We will release the iPhone," says his side an employee of a company of mutual fund also defends his dedication: "we have the right to play it if everyone does his job." His team has even organized together to bet on the outcome of games.

For football fans are lucky, their boss shares the same passion (or includes) and installed a screen in the office. "We bought a TV for Roland Garros, the World Cup and also for the financial news networks anyway," says Bruno, an analyst in a asset management company, "we will light according to general opinion, and it will mute the sound, as Roland Garros.

Productivity in danger?

In these circumstances, the World Cup could have an impact on global productivity? Yes, according to the company Blue Coat Systems specializes in security and networking applications that points to the bandwidth consumed by access to streaming soccer matches, to the detriment of professional priorities bad credit pay day loans.

"Many employees are unaware of the effect of video streaming over a network, said Nigel Hawthorn of Blue Coat Systems. This is the first World Cup where there are as many opportunities to watch the games online and interact with our friends and colleagues on social networking sites.Knowing that a football match watched streaming consumes about 750MB of bandwidth – is sending more than a dozen copies of Tolstoy's War and Peace – it is important that IT professionals and human resources to communicate employees clear rules.

"A question full of traps"

But Didier Primault, economist at the Center for Law and Economics of Sports, the Economic Impact of the World Cup is a particularly complicated problem to solve. "The impact may even be positive, he notes, there is more enthusiasm when France wins after a joke among colleagues!". We can actually remember the wave of enthusiasm generated by the victory of the Blues in 1998.In general, the economist points out that many professions do not allow access to a screen to watch the game and the duration of the competition is too short, just over a month to have a real impact on economy.

"It comes full of traps" answers Didier Primault, referring to "substitution effects" that allow some sectors to benefit from slowing further. And, even noting a change in productivity during the World Cup, there is no evidence that the sporting event is the cause. Many other factors must indeed be factored into the calculation of productivity, such as unemployment or even the climate situation.

But historically, the economist says, despite the impact of the 98 World Cup, "France has a lower demand for sports entertainment" than other countries like Great Britain.Moreover, according to the poll by Monster, 61% of French respondents say they are not interested in the World Cup, the world average but well behind the Italians (39%), Irish (40%), British ( 53 %)… and especially the few hundred Malaysians who participated in the survey: 85% of them are excited by the adventures of South African players and loans to 44% to defy a ban on employers to watch the games. Beyond cultural differences, doubts about the 2010 vintage lights may prevent the French workers to dissipate this year …

On the lower prices promised the advance Synhorcat containing figures from INSEE, reduced by 1.7% in prices. Far, indeed, the 3% promised at the signing of the contract establishing the future VAT at 5.5%.But better than the forecasts of the Secretary of State for Trade, Herve Novelli, who requested last December restaurants to limit their price increases, given the economic crisis, the level of inflation.

A decline also practiced mainly by large chains, which have clearly made this issue a sales and communication. Today Synhorcat not hesitate to praise the French restaurant as "cheap": "80% of meals in France costs less than 15 euros," he said beforehand. Not sure the French, whose purchasing power remains a major concern, hear it that way.

An agreement "historic" on wages

On the employment front, too, success is not straightforward.While restaurant owners had agreed, in consideration of the reduction in VAT, to create 20,000 permanent jobs and 20,000 contracts for professional learning or within 2 years, Synhorcat announces that for the moment creations 5700 jobs. The objective, however, seemed difficult to achieve in terms of economic conditions.

The only real success of the VAT reduction: the agreement on wage conditions in the restaurant, described as "historic" by Hervé Novelli. "We are hiring today with a salary 25% above the law", welcomes the Synhorcat. Wages have indeed been reassessed 5% when the non-frames increases leveled averaged 1.1% in 2009.A mutual health has been created, and employees receive an annual bonus equivalent to 2% of their annual salary, capped at 500 euros.

Employees are however not the only benefit from the reduction of VAT in 2009, the catering market has indeed registered a positive growth, and an estimated turnover of 72.5 billion euros, posting also Synhorcat.