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Radio Silence. Since the leaks to the press last July that Sanofi-Aventis has made an initial offer of $ 69 per share or 18.4 billion dollars, the pharmaceutical company and the American biotechnology company, Genzyme, have decided to no longer communicate on the subject. On the occasion of the publication of the results of the group in late July, the CEO of Sanofi-Aventis, Chris Viehbacher, confirmed to Le Figaro that the group will continue its acquisition policy. "We will continue to make acquisitions. We work on small and medium-sized operations. Small can be up to 5 billion dollars. The averages may reach twenty billion dollars. However, we do not want mega-mergers. ".

Between $ 75 and $ 80

A silence that analysts interpret as the beginning of discussions between the two parties.And, according to The Wall Street Journal, these negotiations have started badly. While Sanofi encamp on his positions, namely an initial offer of 69 dollars per share, the leaders of Genzyme seller would not be below 80 dollars. "I do not see Sanofi pay more than $ 80. However, the shareholders present capital of Genzyme – Relational and Carl Icahn – will not accept offers of less than 75 dollars, "said Hervé Manign, specializing in mergers and acquisitions. If Sanofi-Aventis declined to specify the amount of the envelope before it, the analysts amounting around 20 billion euros. The group comes easily to renegotiate a credit line of $ 7 billion to 2015.

"Sanofi is not obliged to do this operation"

If both parties wish that the discussions continue, they must s'entendrent on the initial offer."Genzyme is a very tempting prey for Sanofi, because it would allow him to catch up on organic products, which have the advantage of being more difficult to generics, said Herve Mangin. But Sanofi is not obliged to do this. On the one hand, an acquisition too expensive tarnish the good investments made by Chris Viehbacher since his arrival at the head of the group. On the other hand, it would force the group to increase its capital, which would reduce the value of the transaction.

A month ago, Sanofi-Aventis published in the second quarter sales up 4.6% to 7.8 billion euros, but down 1.2% at constant exchange rates. Net income from operations rose 7.6% to 2.5 billion (+4.5% at constant exchange rates).If the activity is driven by emerging markets (+19.4% organic growth for the half year), sales in Europe and the United States will continue to decline with further loss of patents, but after 2013 the group remains confident with the launch of new products. Sanofi-Aventis development Jevtana particularly in the treatment of prostate cancer has just been approved in the United States, and iniparib (BS1201) in the treatment of breast cancer.

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On Monday, the euro has exceeded a threshold important to the dollar. Crossing $ 1.32 per euro, the European currency has confirmed that his movement assessment started in June was solid. According to technical analysis, once reached this milestone, "there should be a rally towards $ 1.34."

The explanations are manifold, since by definition, when the exchange rate Euro / Dollar rises, it may come from a strong euro, but also a weaker dollar. In this case, currently, the two factors at play.

The euro rises

First, the rise of the euro reflects a growing confidence in Europe.If the euro has fallen more than 20% in less than six months, overwhelmed by the problems of sovereign debt, Greek, Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, etc.. Have even questioned the existence of the euro, European currency recovers while the EU has proven, with the IMF, she was desperate to save a member of the bankruptcy, and it would be tough on states to put in stringent budgetary policies.

The renewed confidence is also bolstered in recent weeks by a series of rather positive economic statistics in Europe. Especially in Germany.

The dollar drops

On the other hand, the dollar decline. First, the inverse relationship between changes in U.S. equity markets and the greenback continues to hold. But Wall Street has recovered well in July (7.18% on the month for the Dow Jones) and the month of August has begun.In reality, investors are becoming more appetite for risk and sell the dollar in favor of assets or currencies more risky.

On the other hand, the economic statistics on U.S. rather disappointed and shed doubt on the strength of the recovery across the Atlantic. Good reasons to abandon the dollar.

The yen is at its highest in fifteen years

The weaker dollar also largely explains the surge in the yen, which reached a higher Wednesday since April 1985. What open competitive Japanese companies, including the key word for success is export.

For three months, the dollar has lost 9.48% against the yen. A worrying trend: according to calculations by the OECD, a 10% appreciation of the yen would cut growth by 0.2 percentage points in the first year and 0.4 the second and third year."The impact is not significant when the forecast is 2-3% growth per annum over the next two years," relativized in a note Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale IPC.

According to Raymond Van der Putten, Japan specialist at BNP Paribas, "the yen's appreciation is mainly due to poor growth expectations in the United States."

IN BRIEF – Australian dollar and sterling

The doubling of the surplus balance of trade of Australia and its implications for sustained economic growth, has rekindled hopes of a future market for new rate hike by the Australian central bank, providing support this morning the Australian dollar.

In the United Kingdom, the earnings published by the UK banks have supported the pound sterling, which reached a high of six months against the U.S. dollar.

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The spill "will push us to rethink our energy and environmental policy," said Barack Obama last June 14 during his fourth visit to the polluted beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. "We remain the largest importers of oil, or we can make the investments that we would become the world's leading exporter of renewable energy." This sentence, Bush had decided long before the "September 11 ecological. It is dated March 19, 2009. For when he took office, the successor of George W. Bush's climate and the "transition energy" one of its priorities.Obama was then referred to the creation of 5 million jobs through green energy and 150 billion dollars invested in ten years to stimulate private effort.

The deal is simple: the U.S. and 2% of the world population, consume nearly 22% of the world's oil. They are well produced 7.1 million barrels per day last year (8.5% of world production), but must import about 60% of their needs.

A carbon market

Since the beginning of his mandate, Barack Obama defends climate energy bill, stalled in Congress. Precisely for Obama rally Republican senators, one month before the spill, had conceded the oil lobby to lift the ban on oil drilling in Atlantic and Pacific instant payday loan. Before declaring a new disaster in six-month moratorium.Giving due to 32 oil companies that had filed an appeal, a judge in Louisiana quashed yesterday, this moratorium. The White House immediately announced its intention to appeal.

The Democratic majority hopes tying a new version of the bill by the month of July. The text, in its latest release, provides a carbon market to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from industry and, among other provisions, the nuclear revival.

No matter that the oil spill as an excuse to create an energy tax, has won Sunday's Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, where every vote counts.

Barack Obama is still riding the wave sticky to push his advantage. It should meet on Wednesday a group of Senate Republicans and Democrats to find a new compromise on the law.Without waiting for Congress, the Administration Obama has already made progress in diversifying its energy sources.

While acknowledging "the path in one year", ie the return of growth, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Thursday that "the world remains a dangerous place." At the press conference opening spring financial meetings, held in Washington until Sunday, he cited high unemployment and weak demand remaining lot of "rich countries". He expressed concern about the almost inexorable rise of their public debts, which will spend "80% to 115% of GDP on average, between 2008 and 2014.

But the boss of the International Monetary Fund had especially in mind the "Greek case". "There is no simple solution," he admitted."Everyone can understand that I will not give many details about Greece because we are just beginning to negotiate." Asked about a possible "restructuring of public debt", he replied that "it is not a question on which we work. " The opposite would have been surprising.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn has been more incisive about what should be the main topic of discussion of the G20 Finance Ministers, held on Friday, namely the financial sector reforms."In many areas, such as rating agencies, trading over the counter (derivatives), hedge funds, which has been announced if implemented by the United States, Europeans, Japanese is simply incoherent fast payday loan. "

DSK will strike while the iron is hot and play the full role of coordinator who is the IMF's mandate. "We have a political pressure in most countries, the United States and the European Union to ask governments to move faster.". He took the opportunity to condemn the so called "Basel II on bank capital and the development of which" has taken twelve years.

Two proposed fee

This warning is "advanced countries", the only ones whose banking systems have been failing during the crisis of 2008-2009.It is accompanied by an IMF report, whose first draft will be discussed by finance ministers. DSK summed himself three themes: "The rules of liquidity and capital, systemic risk, and the resolution mechanism (failure)."

The study recommends the introduction of fees. The one on the balance sheets of financial institutions, to supply a mattress of rescue funds. The other tax, sitting on profits and wages, would be to share the burden of public budgets. The IMF, however, rejects the hypothesis of a Tobin tax on financial transactions. It does not contribute to financial stability or to fight against the excessive risks taken.

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"Banking: Crime and punishment

The trials of Bernard Tapie judicial ended. Charged with the raising accounts of two of his companies, Groupe Bernard Tapie (GBT) and Bernard Tapie Finance Real Estate Federation (FIBT), who were insolvent, Bernard Tapie has been released by the Paris Criminal Court on Friday . What the prosecution had requested in February.

"This release was expected in fifteen years. The court held that it would never have been there and there would never have to be a liquidation, welcomed Mr. Maurice Lantourne, attorney Bernard Tapie.

His other lawyer, Herve T?mime, even says that Bernard Tapie, "has been a settling of political scores and this case was for him a brake on business and politics." According to him, this release is primarily a "rehabilitation with accountability" of Credit Lyonnais.In 2008, the Consortium for implementation (CDR), a public body responsible for settling the liabilities of the bank, accused of having swindled Bernard Tapie in the resale of sports equipment manufacturer Adidas, has been ordered to pay 285 million euros the former minister.

Settle his accounts with the law

Bernard Tapie has always claimed that his two companies have not been bankrupt, had he not been swindled by Credit Lyonnais in connection with the sale of Adidas. His lawyers had argued that "the offense of bankruptcy is no longer possible", since "the first element" essential to a bankruptcy, ie liquidation or judicial relief, no longer exists.

The FIBT owned industrial heritage and financial Bernard Tapie and GBT wore his personal assets. The two holding companies were declared bankrupt in 1994.A winding canceled December 7, 2009 by the Paris Criminal Court.

The British bride is more beautiful. British Airways, which should finalize during 2010 his marriage with Iberia, said Friday it had halved its operating loss in the third quarter.

"We still expect to lose money records this year," warned Willie Walsh, its director general. Due to a disastrous start to the year, the company has doubled its losses in the first nine months of its fiscal year. But saving measures taken upon entry into the crisis begins to pay. They have reduced operating costs by 10.5%.

To achieve this, the company has taken most of its competitors' revenues low costs. Starting with one of the keys to their model: a homogeneous fleet of aircraft, which reduces maintenance costs.On its base from London Gatwick, British Airways is gradually increased to a single type of aircraft (Boeing 777) for its long-haul flights and two models (Airbus A 320 and A 319) for its medium-haul flights.

All departments of the company have also made efforts. British Airways has cut staffing in its ground staff. A voluntary separation scheme and the non-renewal of retirements have to spend the staff of the London Heathrow Airport from 7 000 to 6 000 employees.

The operation of the hub has been completely redesigned. The development of online registration and training for staff to become versatile allowed both increase productivity and improve the punctuality of aircraft easy payday loans .

Last summer, finally, employees of support functions had to take leave without pay."Everyone had made efforts, but the sailors, summarizes a part of British Airways. We decided to make some changes so authoritarian. "

"Ability to react quickly"

Since the fall, steps have been taken to reduce the rest stops and to enhance the productivity of crews. The rest in Los Angeles after a flight from London for example is increased from two to one night.

A voluntary retirement plan was established to 1 000 cabin crew. 3 000 sailors have agreed to move to part time. This change has saved the equivalent of 700 employees at the company. British Airways has also offered its pilots a pay cut 6 to 7% against shares. This will allow the company to achieve 300 million pounds of savings this year."These reforms demonstrate our ability to react quickly, welcomes a part of the company. Our competitors have thought that we overreact. "

These drastic measures have however led social movements. The crew of the company and to vote February 22 on organizing a strike to oppose these measures, calling the union Unite.

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During the worst crisis in the global economy since 1929, electronic commerce has continued to grow. The turnover posted by online merchants reached 25 billion euros, up 26% in one year. Growth continues at a speed so rampant: the activity has increased tenfold since 2002. Electronic commerce now weighs just over 4% of retail sales (excluding food and pharmaceuticals) business cards . And projections are optimistic, according to the Federation of e-commerce and distance selling (Fevad), who presented the results Tuesday, the amount could reach 46 billion by 2012. The increase in 2009 was fueled in particular the creation of 17,000 new commercial sites, two every hour!

After a 2008 black, stock markets around the world experienced in 2009 a substantial rebound in the light of an economy still recovering. In Europe, the Dax in Frankfurt rose 23% to 5957.43 points December 31, while the FTSE in London was granted 22.07%, to end the year at 5412.88 points. The squares of Brussels (+ 31%) and Madrid (+ 30%) did even better, while the Swiss market shows an increase of 18.27% and the Milan Stock Exchange rose from 13.28%.

A second half of 2010 uncertain

In Asia, equity indices recorded spectacular gains. Shanghai has taken over 80% in one year, and Hong Kong has offered an increase of 52%.Even in Japan, where the structural problems persist, the Nikkei index Featured jumped 19.04% in 2009, to reach 10,546.44 points at the end of the year.

Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones rose over the year to 18.82% and the Nasdaq composite jumped 43.89%.

According to the main house management, year 2010 should be characterized by a sustained increase in equity markets in developed countries during the first half of the year. The interest rates of central banks and European American should not be raised before next fall or later, consider including Axa IM, Pictet and Aurel BCG.

Then, visibility fading. The recovery plans, adding to public debt, will sooner or later disappear, and allow growth to take charge alone.

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Surprise drop in industrial production in October. It fell again by 0.8% after falling 1.2% in September. From his side, manufacturing production also decreases by 0.8% after declining 1.1% in September. Despite everything, the good performance observed in August saved the furniture: over the last three months, manufacturing output rose 2.6%. Over this period it has observed a strong rebound in metal and other metal products (+7.4%) and in automobiles (+14.1%). It has also increased in the manufacture of rubber products, plastic and other nonmetallic mineral products (+4.1%), manufacture of machinery and chemicals (4%).

However, through the last two months, rather bearish, suggesting that the destocking process finds no link with a recovery in demand.In addition, manufacturing output last three months is 10.4% lower production in the same month last year, which is hardly pleasing. "The truth is that no demand: our exports, especially to our neighbors in the European Union, are crumbling and the investment in the country continues to decline" Analysis and Alexander Law.

The situation in the automotive sector and is symptomatic. Despite a sharp increase in registrations due to the scrapping bonus, production slowed significantly in September in October, with a 5% drop in production in October, itself resulting from a fall of 8.1% in September. After a period of destocking, manufacturers are reluctant to turn back to their full production lines, especially with the planned termination of premiums.