Visit the first bank to harass her be on time, spend a few sleepless nights and decide under the pressure of fear of missing out on a property. In two words: make haste, for fear of not doing. That was the motto of the buyers and sellers last year could play in pushing their prices higher on tighter markets. Since the beginning of the year, the pressure eased. A certain calm has returned to the estate agents and sales offices promoters. The first months of the year are traditionally little agitated and this year is no exception to the rule. "The market has stabilized. Everything has become calmer, more thoughtful, transactions take place in calm, "said Marc Foujols.After the rush of year-end investors who wanted to enjoy tax reductions related to Scellier before they become less attractive, it does not surprise anyone. The Chamber of Notaries of Ile-de-France finally estimated 17.5% higher prices to central Paris last year. A change a little lower than the 20% mentioned in the first instance but still atypical. Just as rising prices in some major cities. And fortunately! The market can not reasonably continue to grow at such rates, buyers' budgets are not infinitely expandable.
The year 2011 promises to be more reasonable. Bouygues Immobilier, it provides a stable market for housing in 2011. And no observer expects another year of crazy prices, even in the capital. A market would grow 20% a year would not be healthy.Christian Lefebvre, President of the Chamber of Notaries of Paris, which refuses to forecast long-term "too random", made a vow: "That prices continue to obey this downward spiral upward, which reached limits economically and socially difficult to cross again. "
The year began quietly
Last year, prices have evolved very differently in different regions and cities. In some cities, they stood still, and in others they decreased. And this year? "The price increase is expected to continue because of an offer structural deficit, at least in the tense areas. Overall, the need is 500,000 units per year while it built about 350,000 on average.In the tense areas, prices could well increase in the first half before stabilizing later, "suggests Stephen Imowicz, CEO of Land Bank Property. For many experts, the rise should be limited, the market needs to catch his breath, and buyers too. In 2011, the housing market should once again see mingle price increases and decreases. The national average (2-3% increase expected by Fnaim in 2011) will therefore not very representative.Many are betting on a further year in two stages, a good first half and more attention to the latter, especially as the approach of an election year, traditionally rhymes with less activity.
How are things going there on the ground since the beginning of the year? The Century 21 network, which publishes twice a year in January and July, the statistics from the data transmitted through its network, has agreed to add a date to this year's calendar and to the point at the end of February for Figaro Magazine bad credit pay day loans. "The volume of transactions during the first two months of the year fell 3% from the first two months of 2010, is a significant development," says Laurent Vimont, president of Century 21. Ile-de-France, where the trends are exacerbated, the same receding volumes of 20% (and 10% in Paris). "The market has stalled. All sellers expect the price increase.But rising interest rates on loans reduces the number of buyers. "There is still a slight price increase of around 2.7% in France, but with" strong regional disparities. " "In Paris, the price increase is 1.45% on the first two months of the year. It is more important in the Ile-de-France, where it reached 5.52%, "says Laurent Vimont, which is again multi-speed markets. According to statistics from the network, Seine-et-Marne, and prices are down an average of 7% at end-February compared to February 2010, while they increase especially in the Val-de-Marne.Sebastien de Lafond, president of Meilleursagents.com, also finds a market downturn early this year in the Ile-de-France.
Regions in the photo is just as contrasting as Century 21, prices fell by nearly 5 to 7% at the end of February compared to February 2010 in Alsace, Aquitaine, Basse-Normandie, Bretagne, Midi-Pyrenees Poitou-Charentes and Pays de la Loire, Auvergne, so they progress (+4.2%) or in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais (+ 5%) and they are stabilized in the Rhone-Alpes (+ 0.8 %). "It is in the less expensive the prices continue to rise, the market is readjusting," said Laurent Vimont.
The rate hike is still bearable
At this point the real estate cycle, a sharp increase in rates could freeze the market. But we're not there. Rising mortgage rates since the beginning of the year is real, but contained.Certainly, borrowers can no longer find the conditions of last autumn, but they are not so badly off. Rates are historically low. According to the broker Meilleurtaux credits, rates on 20 years ranged from 3.80 to 4.20% according to the records, compared to a range of 3.60 to 4% a year ago. The broker believes however that the volume of mortgages should be lower this year than last year (130 billion euros against 158 billion in 2010). A decrease that Christian Camus, CEO of Meilleurtaux says the "virtual disappearance" of renegotiations of mortgages this year.
"The PTZ + should restore the purchasing power of households with first-time buyers, the Scellier him, because of its tax advantage, is still interesting for the rental investor," said Stephane Imowicz however.The new tax data, with tax benefits "planed" to investors (see page 186), coupled with the expansion of the zero-rate loan now distributed without means will it change the balance on the market? It could increase the weight of first-time buyers face to investors. Last year, they have captured the lion's share. They represented 63% of buyers in the ninth against 32% in 2000.
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