On the night of Sunday to Monday, an agreement was reached between Republicans and Democrats to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. A favorable outcome that immediately reassured the markets: when Barack Obama announced the compromise to 2:45 Paris time, Asian stock markets – open to this hour – surged after learning that the failure to pay the United States was avoided. The Nikkei in Tokyo rose 1.7% immediately before finishing up 1.34%. Later, in Europe, major indices also showed the green, like the Cac 40 in Paris, which opened up 1.35%, and the ragagnant 3700 points, the Footsie Londoner, who took 1.07 % and the Dax in Frankfurt (+1.5%).
Safe haven, gold subside sees the outbreak of the course, which showed great concern on the part of investors.The yellow metal, which was still worth almost 1630 dollars per ounce on Friday, and is around 1615 dollars fell on Monday. Another indicator of the relief the markets: oil, which accounts for the opening of Wall Street about 2.7% to 98.28 dollars.
Immediate response as the currency market, the dollar has suddenly taken against major world currencies, particularly against the yen (the dollar rose from 77.3 to 78 yen per hour), just after the announcement.
Market reassured for a time only
Thus, if the news was appreciated at the time, markets have not been won by either euphoria and await confirmation of the plan by one vote. Yet some Republicans have expressed strong opposition to the agreement. Already around noon on Monday, the dollar back down a little, one euro was trading against 1.4437 dollars (0.23%).Same against the Swiss franc, another safe haven, which goes back to full speed against the dollar and finds its historical levels of force, to 0.78 Swiss francs to the dollar. On European stock markets, the increases were massed in mid-day. Then on Wall Street, the Dow has advanced little in early trade to 15.30, about 0.7%. Not enough to make up for the fall of 4.4% registered in the past week.
Then, around 3:45 p.m., the European and American markets have nose dive.It is not there a sudden distrust towards the agreement on U.S. debt, but a strong reaction of markets to the publication of the U.S. ISM index, which measures the strength of manufacturing activity across the Atlantic and came out in sharp decline.
Many uncertainties remain
A disappointing statistic that echoes the poor performance of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter, and falling very badly, while the federal government announces measures of fiscal restraint. The markets also show careful because the details of the agreement remain unclear. In addition, the debt ceiling would require a new vote in early 2013, after the presidential elections.Now remains to be seen how the rating agencies will react to reductions in planned expenditure, less important than they hoped.
However, they have warned: even if the United States are not lacking, this would not prevent the AAA rating of the country may be degraded. In this case, markets may again sink into depression.
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