Immersed for weeks in a deep pessimism, investors had played the crisis Friday and Monday. However, the ability of European leaders to respond definitively to the debt crisis is still struggling to convince.A phenomenon that confirm the disagreements between countries in the euro area on the measures to adopt, and just wiping out the gains Monday. If the preparatory meeting of finance ministers of 27 (Ecofin) has been canceled, the leaders of the euro area, however, continue to negotiate before the meeting tomorrow Wednesday of Heads of State and Government (first of 27 and 17 of the the euro area).

At the heart of the discussions: the recapitalization of banks, the amount of the discount of the Greek debt, and strengthening the European bailout fund (EFSF). According to one diplomatic source, the representatives of the banks would like to limit the discount to 40% volunteered to stabilize the Greek debt, against 50 to 60% required by the euro area.Moreover, concerns about the Italian situation is escalated, while Silvio Berlusconi may have trouble getting the promised reforms the last weekend to reduce the debt of his country. The Prime Minister pledged to push trans to 67 years of age retirement.

Diving morale of U.S. households

In this context, mixed economic data revealed the Atlantic have increased pessimism. Stabilization of U.S. house prices in August, according to the Case Shiller index, and the unexpected plunge in the morale of U.S. households in October, have reinforced doubts about the health of the world's largest economy.

By sector, banks are logically the most attacked, BNP Paribas, lost 3.75% to 30.80, Societe Generale fell back to 3.80%, to 19 euros. Axa was down 1.76% to 10.90 euros.François Fillon, French Prime Minister confirmed that the banks of the Hexagon should recapitalize to the tune of "ten billion euros."

In contrast, cyclical stocks including oil services, were well oriented, supported by oil prices that reached a high for about three months. Maurel & Prom has awarded 2.86% to 14.90 euros and CGG Veritas was up 1.21% to 16.73 euros.

Also against the current, and two days before unveiling its sales for the third quarter, the title of Plastic Omnium has continued to rise (3.35%, to 20.76 euros) having already jumped more than 10% two sessions. Finally, on the eve of the announcement of its quarterly revenue, PPR has taken the lead in the CAC 40 with a gain of 3.84% to 111 euros.

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Ten days after his trip to Berlin, Nicolas Sarkozy visited on Wednesday in the financial capital of Germany for a further meeting with Angela Merkel. Officially, he came to pay tribute to Jean-Claude Trichet, who drew his bow at the head of the ECB. But in practice, to lock an agreement soon with the Chancellor. After a two-hour meeting nothing has filtered. The two leaders were released separately without comment. They looked tense.They rushed into their cars, to use the plane to Paris and Berlin.

The key issue – the appropriate role or not the European Central Bank in the financing of sovereign debt in support of the EFSF, the bailout funds in the euro area – remains still pending. France is clearly, even amending the Treaties. Germany has always been against the name of financial orthodoxy and independence considered sacrosanct by the ECB.

The question plagues the Paris-Berlin for months. At one hundred hours of a summit that everyone wants to believe decisive, it is especially doubt the strength of the Franco-German base on which the 17 partners of the euro and the 27 EU countries have establish a bulwark Sunday against the crisis and contagion."Monday morning he will have the markets, the United States, China and the IMF are convinced that Europe has a plan, a European official placed loose in the heart of the discussion. If there is no agreement, each European country will be reduced to playing individual survival. "

A "Mr Euro"

As a result, dramatically raised the bar for Sunday. Until recent days, Europeans thought solve problems in sequence: first Greece, then the recapitalization of banks with the strengthening of EFSF and economic governance coupled with greater budgetary discipline and finally the start of construction new treaties to push European integration. In an emergency, they say in Brussels, the Heads of State and Government will instead have to treat the whole as a whole.

Essential parts are already in place.Athens will release in the coming days with an 8 billion euro. She will spend the deadlines in November and avoid bankruptcy catastrophic for the euro. Unless dramatic, France and Germany also agreed on the recapitalization of banks. Governance side, it seems certain that the European Council President Herman Van Rompuy become "Mr. Euro ". The terms of the collective fiscal discipline and above the level of checks carried out by teams in each capital Brussels are still under debate. The case directly related to the revision of treaties, also raises serious questions of national sovereignty.

But against the backdrop of persistent differences between France and Germany regarding the bailout fund and the role of the ECB, it remains to organize the famous "against fire" in the euro area, ie to prevent the spread of the fire."It's reassuring to calm the Greek home. But that does not answer the real question posed by the market: what happens if other countries are in turn earned by the flames? ", Said the European official.

After degradation of Spain by Moody's and uncertainty on France by Standard & Poor's is Italy, the third power of the euro might come to haunt the summit. "Nobody talks about it openly, but everyone has the scenario of an Italian debacle in mind," said one senior source. After public criticism that its inertia creates the Italian employers, Silvio Berlusconi could be claimed Sunday accountable by their peers, they say in Brussels.

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Pierre Mariani, who arrived in October 2008 to save Dexia strangled by a need for short-term funding of 265 billion euros of assets impossible to meet, had done everything to reduce the group's balance sheet. In three years, he was able to reduce the need for 96 billion.Las! With sovereign debt crisis, which has again closed the valve finance is still far too. And states can no longer play the firefighters.

Thus, Pierre Mariani resolved to opt for an orderly liquidation scenario. Instead of sales, the Franco-Belgian group prefers to speak of "backing of (its) business franchises." Retail banking in Belgium, the Turkish subsidiary Denizbank, asset management and private banking: all subsidiaries of Dexia will seek and lessee in the coming days. According to one familiar with the matter, some sales process is well underway. Britain's Standard Chartered, in particular, did not hold in recent months to report its interest in the coveted Denizbank.

However, if the Franco-Belgian group has some beautiful assets, some remain unmarketable.Difficult indeed to generate interest for Italian or Spanish Crediop Sabadell open doubt about the state of public finances in Italy and Spain. Initially, according to our information, Pierre Mariani had planned to build packages of assets, including both of the jewels and lame ducks, so as not to keep the latter in his pouch. But this option proved too complicated to implement. However, it is urgent if we are to preserve the clients who are starting to worry greatly poor credit personal loans.

Political issue

This sense of urgency felt this weekend in Paris. After weeks of tension, the Deposit, the Postal Bank and Dexia reached an agreement after final dealings these days under the blue helmet René Ricol.The portfolio of loans to French local authorities and will be taken over by an entity owned by Caisse des Depots et La Banque Postale.

The operation has, as revealed Le Figaro (our editions of September 24), an interest factor: out of stock of Dexia about 80 billion euros of assets, primarily loans to French local authorities to transfer them to the new entity. For the Franco-Belgian bank, it will be much less to refinance. Dexia Municipal Agency, the company that issues mortgage bonds on behalf of Dexia, also switch into the orbit of the CDC and the Postal Bank in order to maintain the AAA rating necessary for its operations.

With this scheme, Dexia will be able to blow some time, time to complete the rest of his program.The creation of the "bad bank", in particular, may be difficult, given its political and financial stakes. French and Belgian States, indeed, should be asked to give their guarantee for installation of such defeasance. In other words, adding safeguards in a situation where all states are seeking to reduce their debt instead is far from a challenge.

On Monday evening, the Minister of Economy, Baroin, met his Belgian counterpart Didier Reynders, in conjunction with the meeting of finance ministers from the euro area. The French and Belgian governments "do the right thing" to support their banks, said Didier Reynders.

The financial restructuring of Dexia, finally, could have serious consequences for Belgium and its banking system.Some Belgian shareholders of Dexia, as the Holding Communal, would have difficulty recovering from an operation on the truth value of their assets. Relations between France and the United will play at the moment.

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The board of directors of the group was convened in plenary session Friday in Singapore. Initially, Oswald Grübel had yet to defend him. According to press Helvetic, he had to enjoy a visit to the Singapore sovereign fund GIC, which holds 6.41% of UBS, to ask the Board of Directors of the bank vote of confidence.He wanted to get his approval to remain in power until early 2013 and to complete the restructuring of the banking and wealth management at UBS.

Oswald Grübel, CEO of UBS. Photo Credit: Steffen Schmidt / ASSOCIATED PRESS

Safe haven, gold subside sees the outbreak of the course, which showed great concern on the part of investors.The yellow metal, which was still worth almost 1630 dollars per ounce on Friday, and is around 1615 dollars fell on Monday. Another indicator of the relief the markets: oil, which accounts for the opening of Wall Street about 2.7% to 98.28 dollars.

Immediate response as the currency market, the dollar has suddenly taken against major world currencies, particularly against the yen (the dollar rose from 77.3 to 78 yen per hour), just after the announcement.

Market reassured for a time only

Thus, if the news was appreciated at the time, markets have not been won by either euphoria and await confirmation of the plan by one vote. Yet some Republicans have expressed strong opposition to the agreement. Already around noon on Monday, the dollar back down a little, one euro was trading against 1.4437 dollars (0.23%).Same against the Swiss franc, another safe haven, which goes back to full speed against the dollar and finds its historical levels of force, to 0.78 Swiss francs to the dollar. On European stock markets, the increases were massed in mid-day. Then on Wall Street, the Dow has advanced little in early trade to 15.30, about 0.7%. Not enough to make up for the fall of 4.4% registered in the past week.

Then, around 3:45 p.m., the European and American markets have nose dive.It is not there a sudden distrust towards the agreement on U.S. debt, but a strong reaction of markets to the publication of the U.S. ISM index, which measures the strength of manufacturing activity across the Atlantic and came out in sharp decline.

Many uncertainties remain

A disappointing statistic that echoes the poor performance of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter, and falling very badly, while the federal government announces measures of fiscal restraint. The markets also show careful because the details of the agreement remain unclear. In addition, the debt ceiling would require a new vote in early 2013, after the presidential elections.Now remains to be seen how the rating agencies will react to reductions in planned expenditure, less important than they hoped.

However, they have warned: even if the United States are not lacking, this would not prevent the AAA rating of the country may be degraded. In this case, markets may again sink into depression.

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Ranchers are in trouble

These rains helped to clarify some of the grain prospects.The agency has adjusted FranceAgriMer last week its forecast of wheat production, providing 32 million tons instead of 31. What remains below the 2010 harvest, already one of the less good the last two years.

If rain has arranged grains, however, it comes too late for some farmers. Given the difficulties to feed their animals for lack of grass in the meadows, it has been prematurely cut down some of their livestock. For others, it was necessary to buy straw to grain. Contracts were signed with them, which helped to avoid speculation and keep the price around 25 euros per tonne.FNSEA has signed agreements with the SNCF for transporting the straw with the cost and highways to avoid tolls for trucks.

Despite these measures, the additional cost of purchasing straw will reach 10,000 to 50,000 euros per farm, according to the FNSEA. Some farmers will use a short-term loan from the Credit Agricole, at preferential rates (1.5 to 2%). This will allow them to wait until payment of the advance on the compensation of losses due to drought.

This advance, initially planned 100 million euros, has already been revised to 200 million and will be available by the National Fund for risk management in agriculture in mid-September. Nicolas Sarkozy also pledged to offset one year's repayments of loans to farmers in 2009.Christophe Chambon (Young Farmers) estimates that the measure "will give an impetus to helping farmers," but wants more: a deferred annuity of total loans.

Sign, however, difficult to finalize a common position, the meeting of finance officials of the euro zone has been extended from Wednesday night to Thursday morning. In turn, the summit will begin with an hour late, at noon instead of 11 hours.

"No great advances"

The postponement will allow a little more time to French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to resolve disputes between the two countries: they meet on Wednesday afternoon in Berlin.The two countries have different objectives. Angela Merkel has applied to shower expectations. There will be "no great progress," she said Tuesday. Before insuring, Wednesday midday, the German government will show good will. And she was "very confident" of finding a common position with France to achieve "good results" on Thursday.

Recognizing that markets will forgive a bad meeting for nothing, Paris wants instead a "durable solution" is found, insisted Wednesday the government spokesman Valerie Pécresse, after the Council of Ministers. It "passes through the Franco-German couple" she added, pointing out that the main resistance to the alternative of issuing bonds were European, according to the French Government, "a German resistance."

If Paris and Berlin hold the key to an agreement between European leaders, they always seem to oppose it on ways to involve banks in terms of aid to Greece. If the amount of effort required to banks of 30 billion euros, a consensus, the methodology to be divided. Paris wants, as the European Central Bank, avoid at all costs that Greece is found in default. Germany intends to take less care. She suggested including the development does not place a tax credit, which the industry sees an evil eye.

"Agreement on the fundamentals"

The French Minister of Economy, Baroin, wanted reassurance."There is a broad convergence of views, there is an agreement on the fundamentals, there is a desire to make more sustainable debt Greek and there is still some discussion on the part of private, but it's more a discussion of degrees and not a discussion of values, "he said.

While the Franco-German leaders will finalize their position, the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in Brussels to meet at 17 hours, the president of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. The aim of the summit is crucial on Thursday, insisted on Wednesday the spokesman of the Greek government: "We have tomorrow (Thursday) a peak in determining the future of the country and Europe, Prime Minister (George Papandreou ) engages in a battle to ensure that Greece will stand on two feet. "

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"One of the members of the commission has indicated that he was later forced to recuse himself," said Gerard Palisse, president of the petitions committee of the Court. "The alternate member of the Court which could have us make up for his part that he himself was unable to do so immediately without prior knowledge of the case. The Committee decided to defer consideration of this matter Thursday, August 4, "he added.

The former French Minister of Economy and current executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is suspected of "abuse of authority" in the arbitration in July 2008 on the case Tapie, Credit Lyonnais faxless cash advance.The businessman, who felt cheated after the sale of Adidas in 1993 with Credit Lyonnais, had obtained 285 million euros of public funds.

In May, the Attorney General of the Supreme Court, Jean-Louis Nadal, asked the petitions committee of the RGC to investigate the matter. If the Court decides to initiate the investigation, it should be long and Christine Lagarde would not be considered for several years. The new leader denies IMF, meanwhile, abuse of authority in this matter and have provided "clear conscience".

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For Nokia, it is urgent. Last month, the group issued a warning on its sales and results, giving even to make predictions, as the period is difficult.Its sales continue to decline, it would hold more than 13.1% of the smartphone market in the first quarter against 25% a year earlier.

But maintaining a strong presence of the Symbian operating system in its range and choice of Microsoft at the expense of Android leave many doubts cast. While the number of applications available on a smartphone is a paramount requirement, the Finn is not in the race. It strives for the time to catch up in smartphones, highlighting the N9 in Singapore, expected to outdo the iPhone and Android to its competitors. To do so, Nokia boasts jumble "three home pages," his "handy user interface," "better voice quality," connectivity … The N9 (under platform Meego) is also equipped with a NFC connection, which enables contactless payments.With this feature, shows that Nokia is still able to board the train for a new technology, not to watch the competition from without it.

With the launch of three new models (N8, E7, C7 and C6-01 will be sold in July) Nokia has pushed the highlight of its commitment to Symbian OS. These terminals will be equipped with the new update system Symbian Anna. Novelty of this new version, it will be downloadable for those who have already bought one of these phones. And over the next twelve months, Nokia will market up to ten new smartphones based on Symbian. From there to imagine that the Finnish and protects against possible setbacks of its U.S. partner, there is only one step.It also reaffirms its loyalty and its customers, accustomed to its operating system, and that it might lose by abandoning it completely. Hence the idea to favor a smooth transition.

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All sectors have benefited from this improvement. Even the industry, which had suffered a haemorrhage during the crisis, saw its numbers stabilize in the first quarter. According to ACOSS, they grew even 0.3%. "The industry created jobs for the first time in 10 years," notes the organization.However, it is the tertiary sector that benefits most from the economic recovery, with an increase in the number of employees by more than 0.5%. The hotel and catering, IT and legal activities and counseling are among the fastest growing sectors.

Strong job growth excluding temporary

More good news: the interim this quarter has contributed little to the strong growth in employment. Sign that sustainable jobs, CDD or CDI, taking over from short missions, the temporary employment in the first quarter rose at a rate four times less intense than last year, with only 7,000 new temporary jobs created. In 2010, the interim was to him alone almost all new jobs (118,000 jobs to 120,000). This quarter, employment center accounts for 57,000 new jobs created, excluding temporary."These volumes were not achieved since the end of 2007," says Bernard Ernst, director of studies and statistics from employment center.

If the increase in employment in the first quarter of 2011 was the strongest since the beginning of the crisis, record job losses recorded in 2008 and 2009 are so far not yet fully recovered. 227,000 jobs are still missing according to the call center jobs to find the pre-crisis levels. A threshold that employment should be taken, according to the agency, at the end of 2012. Because with growth than most economists anticipated lower in the months ahead, job creation should not continue at a vigorous pace that quarter. "A slower growth of GDP in coming quarters will clearly impact on employment.The next figures should be worse, "states Bernard Ernst. For all of 2011, the agency expects 148,000 new jobs.

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