On Monday, the euro has exceeded a threshold important to the dollar. Crossing $ 1.32 per euro, the European currency has confirmed that his movement assessment started in June was solid. According to technical analysis, once reached this milestone, "there should be a rally towards $ 1.34."

The explanations are manifold, since by definition, when the exchange rate Euro / Dollar rises, it may come from a strong euro, but also a weaker dollar. In this case, currently, the two factors at play.

The euro rises

First, the rise of the euro reflects a growing confidence in Europe.If the euro has fallen more than 20% in less than six months, overwhelmed by the problems of sovereign debt, Greek, Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, etc.. Have even questioned the existence of the euro, European currency recovers while the EU has proven, with the IMF, she was desperate to save a member of the bankruptcy, and it would be tough on states to put in stringent budgetary policies.

The renewed confidence is also bolstered in recent weeks by a series of rather positive economic statistics in Europe. Especially in Germany.

The dollar drops

On the other hand, the dollar decline. First, the inverse relationship between changes in U.S. equity markets and the greenback continues to hold. But Wall Street has recovered well in July (7.18% on the month for the Dow Jones) and the month of August has begun.In reality, investors are becoming more appetite for risk and sell the dollar in favor of assets or currencies more risky.

On the other hand, the economic statistics on U.S. rather disappointed and shed doubt on the strength of the recovery across the Atlantic. Good reasons to abandon the dollar.

The yen is at its highest in fifteen years

The weaker dollar also largely explains the surge in the yen, which reached a higher Wednesday since April 1985. What open competitive Japanese companies, including the key word for success is export.

For three months, the dollar has lost 9.48% against the yen. A worrying trend: according to calculations by the OECD, a 10% appreciation of the yen would cut growth by 0.2 percentage points in the first year and 0.4 the second and third year."The impact is not significant when the forecast is 2-3% growth per annum over the next two years," relativized in a note Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale IPC.

According to Raymond Van der Putten, Japan specialist at BNP Paribas, "the yen's appreciation is mainly due to poor growth expectations in the United States."

IN BRIEF – Australian dollar and sterling

The doubling of the surplus balance of trade of Australia and its implications for sustained economic growth, has rekindled hopes of a future market for new rate hike by the Australian central bank, providing support this morning the Australian dollar.

In the United Kingdom, the earnings published by the UK banks have supported the pound sterling, which reached a high of six months against the U.S. dollar.

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