I believe more in a low growth as a relapse of the activity. There have been a very sharp slowdown, as the pace of growth fell from 5% at end 2009 to 1.6%. These figures, subject to some volatility, however, overstate the true extent of the downturn even if the coming quarters, many uncertainties remain.

Let's start with the volatility …

The restocking of companies boosted the activity at year end, without any increase in imports. The opposite effect has played in the first quarter. Despite the slowdown of GDP, domestic demand excluding inventories accelerated, rising by over 4% annual rate in the second quarter. The latest indicators (monthly or weekly) are obviously more worrying, especially in real estate.However, we do not rely on the construction as an engine of the economy!

What drives the U.S. economy?

Exports are an important driver. They rose 15% between mid-2009 and mid-2010 and continue to grow at a rate of 10% per annum. Investment in equipment has also greatly contributed to the recovery since late 2009.

What can we expect consumption?

Two elements of condition, the rate of savings and disposable income. Households who have seen their assets melt, have sought to rebuild their savings. Their savings rate, which now exceeds 6% – against less than 2% in 2007 – should now be stabilizing. Changes in consumption should therefore, over the next month, depending on that of their disposable income and therefore the payroll.So far, the increase in weekly hours of work allowed a reasonable growth of income despite the weakness in job creation. But after hours of work returned to normal, job creation of about 130,000 each month will be needed to avoid a recurrence of the activity. But the last three months, there was an average of only 50,000 jobs created in the private sector.

Is there any new stimulus package?

Even if they are significantly smaller than before the crisis, the leeway of economic policy are not necessarily zero. Two measures are also to be discreetly passed: an extension of the duration of unemployment benefits and federal funding of $ 26 billion to states. Americans are pragmatic: whether to again support the economy, they will.The Federal Reserve may also help prevent a recession by pushing more time to raise rates and, especially, in announcing a new program of buying shares of Treasury bonds.

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The U.S. growth revised sharply downwards

"Lack of communication of the group"

A trust that does not necessarily share the financial markets.At 9:30, the action Gemalto shows a decrease of 4.28% to 28.19 euros in a market up 1.07%, the largest drop in the SRD. "This drop is excessive, an analyst who follows reacts value. The elements that have affected the first half performance was known. The discrepancy between results and expectations of the market indicates a lack of communication from the group. "

Gemalto in line with the consensus

However, the group released under the first-half turnover of 840 million euros, up 5% at current exchange rates. "We accelerated our offers have been very well received, because they correspond to a real need," said Olivier Piou. There is a real market potential of contactless payments, particularly in Africa and South Asia.In France, we are in trouble because we took too far ahead. "

The group's net profit amounted to 63 million euros, down 7.35% from a year earlier. "Today, the consensus of analysts is around 200 million euros profit the year is well within our range," says Olivier Piou. In 2009, the group posted a net profit of 148 million euros.

No new acquisitions

In addition, Gemalto first half operating profit down 15.2% to 67 million euros but he "remains in line with the company plan to increase its result in 2010," the group said in its statement. Gemalto is 300 million euros in income from operating activities in 2013.Of the three main activities of Gemalto, security has the highest increase (+21%) in the first half to 148.2 million euros (17.6% of sales) to the mobile phone (8%) to 451.7 million euros (53.8% of sales) and secure transactions (1%) to 207.4 million euros (24.7% of sales).

After several acquisitions, including the United States and Germany, the group does not provide new acquisitions. Olivier Piou said that Gemalto had to concentrate in the second half on the integration of recent operations.

The month of July was favorable to investors in Paris. In July, the CAC 40 was well recovered, compared to a decline in June and a memorable month of May in terms of poor performance.Between 1 July and this July 30, the index rose 9.1%. Since the beginning of the year, it remains a decline of 7.45%. Compared to a year ago, it was up 6.3%.

On the face values, we will monitor:

BNP Paribas announced on Monday its quarterly results before the market in good order. They are far beyond expectations, thanks to lower provisions.

France Telecom has entered into discussions with shareholders Meditel second operator in Morocco, to acquire 40% stake in it, according to the Moroccan weekly News, citing a potential investment of 650 million euros.

Eurazeo announced Saturday that entered into exclusive negotiations with the U.S. fund Carlyle for the sale of the hotel chain B & B.

The construction group Vinci has been chosen Friday by the Government for the concession and the construction of the airport at Notre-Dame-des-Landes, who should take over from the 2017 air services from Nantes-Atlantique.

Areva on Friday, as expected, half results penalized by an additional provision under the Finnish EPR OL3, but it confirmed its targets for 2010.

Eiffage has published a quarterly revenue up 2.2% and said its order book stood at EUR 10.8 billion at July 1 (+4.4% at constant since April 1 2010), more than 11 months of activity.

APRR – Arnaud Montebourg The socialist leader said it had seized the financial markets authority (AMF) to try and block the delisting of Autoroutes Paris Rhin Rhone (APRR) requested by Eiffarie, a joint venture of Eiffage the Australian Macquarie Group

Besides GDP, the U.S. will publish the index of consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI. In Europe, German retail sales and GDP of the area will also be published.

Moreover, this last week's meeting will again be marked by a series of major business publications.

Alcatel Lucent revenues of 3.813 billion euros in the second quarter, up 17.4% sequentially and down 2.4% from the second quarter of last year. The group reiterated its outlook for 2010, including an adjusted operating income of between 1% and 5% of its revenues.

JCDecaux announced Friday a net profit in the first half of 65 million euros compared to 4.4 million euros over the same period in 2009. The group anticipates a change in organic revenue for the third quarter less than that of the second with a cash flow of 119 million euros, compared with -1.7 million euros in the first half.

Lafarge reported a sales increase of 2% to 4.43 billion euros in the second quarter. The group now provides a variation of the demand for cement between -1 and +3% in 2010 compared to 2009.Lafarge expects a reduction in capital expenditure to less than 1 billion euros in 2011.

EDF has announced a net profit group share 1.7 billion euros including a provision for $ 1.1 billion on its North American operations easy payday loans. Moreover, the EPR Flamanville, who has two years late, should produce marketable electricity in 2014, with construction costs re-estimated at around five billion euros.

EADS announces first half net profit of 185 million euros and a turnover of 20.3 billion euros. Adjusted operating income is 406 million euros. Its subsidiary Airbus raised its target for gross orders in 2010 to more than 400 aircraft. For Eurocopter, the sales increase for 2010 should exceed 44 billion euros.The adjusted EBIT target is maintained at one billion euros despite negative currency effects that are cumulative outstanding in the first half.

Schneider Electric releases a turnover of 8.57 billion euros in the first half (+10.5%) of which 4.661 billion (+18.5%) in the second. The group expects an increase in organic revenue in the second half "broadly comparable" to that of the first half and is now an EBITA margin of around 15.5% before restructuring costs and the impact of consolidation of distribution areva , against 14% previously.

Renault posted a turnover increase of 23.1% for first half of 2010 to the same perimeter, to 19.668 billion euros.The manufacturer profitable again, the latter standing at 823 million euros over the period cons net loss of 2.712 billion euros a year earlier.

PPR announced a net profit after minority interests rose 86.8% to 407 million euros in the first half. The turnover was 8.139 billion euros, representing organic growth of 1.7%.

Imerys has reported a net operating income rose sharply to 122 million euros (161%) in the first half with a turnover of organic growth of 16%.

Michelin and Total must follow.

"The European Commission has decided to open formal antitrust investigations against IBM Corporation in two separate cases of alleged breaches of EU rules on abuse of dominant position in the market," said the EU executive in a statement.

"The two cases," she added, "are related to behavior of IBM in the market for central servers," which weighs, equipment and operating systems including about 8.5 billion worldwide, including three billion in the European Economic Area.

The central servers are powerful computers used by many large companies and government institutions in the world to store and process critical information.

The software manufacturers penalized

The first investigation follows complaints filed against IBM by two vendors say emulation technology, the U.S. in Q3 2009 and the French Hercules Turbo this year. According to these two companies, the software giant would link its central server hardware and its own operating system these servers.

IBM, by not allowing customers the freedom to use the systems of their choice on the equipment of their choice, would penalize manufacturers of software to improve performance on computers of other brands.

As to the second inquiry, the Commission stated that it was launched on its own initiative.Its services suspect indeed a "discriminatory conduct" IBM "vis-à-vis its competitors who provide maintenance services of central servers" fast payday loan no faxing."By restricting or delaying access to spare parts that IBM is the sole supplier, American society, Brussels is concerned, could foreclose its competitors from the market.

Two investigations "without merit" for IBM

The U.S. computer giant, IBM, Judge "without merit" the two investigations announced Monday by the European Commission for abusing its dominant position in the market for central servers, a market "for it was dead" until recently.

In a statement, IBM claims that "there are few, experts in high technology and IBM's competitors were pronounced dead at the central server market", and "many companies abandoned it or developing alternatives" .

Conversely, "IBM has taken a crucial decision: to invest billions of dollars" in this technology "to bring him an unprecedented level of speed, reliability and security for the enterprise market," the statement added. He continued: "Today, the central server market is a small niche in the highly competitive landscape of servers," he says.

IBM therefore accuses "some competitors who have not been able to earn their place on the market through investments" to want to do this using regulators. "The accusations against IBM TurboHercules and T3 are driven by some of the biggest competitors of IBM, led by Microsoft, (…) who want to emulate certain aspects of IBM mainframe servers without having to make substantial investments IBM has done and continues to do, "concludes the group. "They thus violate its intellectual property."

Rigor

The word is out. Against all odds and for the first time, François Fillon spoke of the "rigor" to describe the economic policy of France. Boasting to an audience of Japanese businessmen, austerity measures launched by Paris, the Prime Minister said: "In every state budgets, the only one who is not subject to discipline, that is the budget of Higher Education and Research. Until now, the executive refused to fully use the term "hardship" may be too unpopular with the French.The economy minister, Christine Lagarde, recently described the French policy of policy of "ri-lance, a neologism describing a mixture of" rigor "and" revival ".

France has pledged to save 100 billion euros by 2013 to reduce its deficit. For now, the government relies on its growth forecasts to find half the sum. Otherwise, the government plans to freeze spending between 2011 and 2013 to maintain transfers to local governments and only slightly increase health spending. The state should also remove the tax loopholes and create a new tax on the wealthiest to raise 3.7 billion euros.

In Japan, the country's debt is colossal. The International Monetary Fund press and the country to reduce its deficit.However, there are uncertainties about the government's austerity policy, weakened by his recent defeat in the Senate elections.

The euro and yen to each currency's problem

And the Prime Minister was not content to praise the austerity policy of France, he also invited Japanese investors not to "turn away from the euro payday loans. He also promised that the EU would emerge "stronger" of the economic and financial crisis. It must be said that the disallowance of Nippon contractors for the euro area is growing. Proof is the recent A japponais Nikkei business daily, the 30% decline in investment in the euro countries during the first half of 2010. The concerns of the market seem to disappear on the Old Continent.The success of recent debt issuance in the euro area and witnessed the rise of the euro against the greenback, which is currently processing over $ 1.29.

In contrast to the euro, the yen continues to strengthen against the greenback. It operates at its highest level this year against the dollar, to 87.3 yen against the dollar.

Mitsubishi and Areva

At the industrial level, Prime Minister Francois Fillon said France was "open" to the entry of Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in the capital of nuclear group Areva. The Prime Minister has expressed his desire to "see strengthened the association between Areva and Mitsubishi for the particular realization of a new reactor, the reactor TTY. MHI and Areva have forged various partnerships, including establishing a joint venture, TDD, a developer of nuclear reactors of medium power.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries does not hide its ambition to grow the European market nuclear pressurized water reactors. Nuclear is not the only area in France to attract companies Nippon. In 2008, France has 450 Japanese companies employing nearly 57,000 people.

LE FIGARO. – Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday he would keep both the tax shield and the ISF. Defend yourself always the opposite?

Jean ARTHUIS. – Yes. I think we should remove the two devices. The shield is a bad answer to a bad tax, the ISF. This shield has too many defects. It is calculated on income tax, not real income. Its beneficiaries are beyond any possible tax increase. This is clearly not fair.

Precisely, the government released the shield fiscal measures to finance the pensions …

Yes, but suddenly the complexity increases. Daring to break the taboos and radically simplify tax by removing the shield and the ISF.To finance this deletion, I propose to create an additional income tax (IR) to 45% and increase the scale of taxation on capital gains and real estate. I will table an amendment during consideration of the budget 2011, in the fall.

This option does not penalized Does not those with high salaries but little fortune?

No. The rate of 45% is a marginal rate, which would apply that beyond 100,000 euros per share. RI takes into account family responsibilities. And there is a 10% reduction on wages. In fact, it is mostly capital gains on shares or real estate, which enrich.

Should we raise taxes?

France can not escape the tax increases. Because the plan proposed by the Government alone will not reduce the public deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013. The growth assumption of 2.5% is unrealistic and inadequate conservation measures.It lacks about 50 billion euros. Besides reducing costs, I propose that VAT in particular the restoration and renovation for housing increased from 5.5% to a rate between 10% and 12%. To restore our competitiveness and combat unemployment, it would even raise without waiting the standard rate of VAT, currently 19.6%. Funding for Medicare and family policy must no longer weigh on earnings. VAT must take over.

At the risk of penalizing low-income households?

Is there any greater injustice than unemployment? By maintaining too high levies on production, is pushed to the relocation. All taxes are ultimately paid by the consumer. For a company that sees its tax increase raises its price. The additional VAT on imported goods will.

Should we cut more in the niches?

Yes.The tax shelters cost 75 billion euros. They are undermining the social compact, by making the tax illegible, unfair and inefficient. In addition, the pricing becomes artificial. Ultimately, we must consider deleting the niches, and especially stop creating new ones. Without the increase of the reduced rate of VAT, the government will have great difficulty in meeting its commitments, that is to say an economy 10 billion in two years. The overall ceiling should be lowered.

The government is strong enough on public spending?

During the hearings the Committee on Finance, I had the impression that some ministers were not always aware of the savings. However, it will be necessary to act with determination.Hack 66 billion in credit assistance amounts to touch on sensitive issues such as individual housing (PLA) or subsidies Réseau Ferré de France (RFF). I would add that it is not easy to force parastatal structures to decrease by 10% of their operating expenses. These organizations, ranging from museums to Météo-France, served as space flight for public expenditure.

Should we freeze the salaries of civil servants?

Despite job cuts, the state's payroll increased from 860 million in 2009. This increase is due to wage concessions and changes of the index. Strict moderation is essential.

As a senator from Mayenne, what do you think the value of blocking the funds that the State grants to local communities? This gel can be leveraged to conduct the review of local public policies.Do we really redo roundabouts standards expensive? Especially, the proliferation of standards must end. Premier promised. Despite this, the agricultural modernization law gives the government a right of limitation on the school lunch menu!

France will she one day a zero deficit?

It must. An overburdened state is in the hands of its creditors and threatens the solidarity between generations. This national independence is at stake.

More in a few minutes …

Patrick de Carolis, the outgoing president, had promised to let a house to the square. Despite his best efforts, it is far from having completed the reorganization of France Televisions over the past two years.

Pflimlin Remy, who succeeded him on Aug. 23, has no time to lose as many sensitive issues lie ahead. The new CEO will have to pay, by the fall, the problem of financing of France Televisions. The law provides that advertising screens on the same day of the public channels is halted in November 2011. But many UMP deputies, led by Jean-Francois Cope, argue instead for continued advertising. This would prevent the State to provide 350 million euros in compensation payday loan.In the coming weeks, the new president must deal with these parliamentarians, the President of the Republic who do not wish to give up too quickly for his original project and the competing private channels which require that the law is enforced. If the new CEO gets to keep advertising during the day, it preserves a certain financial autonomy and be less subject to the vagaries of state budget. But behind the advertising file, it opens the privatization of France Televisions governed Advertising. He must choose between following Patrick de Carolis and bury the project, or restart the privatization process.

THE SOCIAL

"This measure is maintained" said the mayor of Troyes. "If it must be questioned, the debate will take place during the next presidential election," he added.

10 billion savings

It must be said that the budget minister no longer had much choice. Tuesday morning, his minister, Christine Lagarde, had hammered on RMC and BFM-TV that the reduction in tax loopholes would not affect the VAT at 5.5% of restaurant owners.Baroin will have to find other niches planing to recover 10 billion euros economy expected by 2013. The minister on Wednesday gave few tracks a bit fuzzy.

Besides the movement of the plane 10% on tax loopholes previously announced, it confirms the non-replacement of 100,000 civil service posts (3 billion savings), reduced operating costs (2000000000), the reduction of lifestyle State … Baroin explains that this is the second round of general revision of public policies.The first, launched in late 2007 as it would have to generate 7 billion euros.

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