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While the specter of economic collapse now seems ruled out in Iceland, it is time to settle accounts. With the front line, the trial of former Prime Minister Geir Haarde, which opens Monday. Before the Landsdomur, unique court empowered to try ministers or former ministers, it must meet its responsibility for the collapse of the financial system in 2008. In a financial crisis, the three largest banks in the North Atlantic island have failed, as they held assets equivalent to 923% of its GDP. Prime Minister and head of the Independence Party (right), Geir Haarde was forced to hand over the resignation of his government in January 2009.

The firm, which will incur up to two years in prison, but hopes a dismissal during the trial, relying on a pure and simple abandonment of the prosecution.For him, it is only a "political farce" orchestrated by "old enemies" of opposition now in power. Evidenced, according to his lawyers, that it is the only politician to appear in court. They argue that the parliamentary committee responsible for determining the individual responsibilities of the former government had initially proposed the indictment of four people.

To many political scientists, this position of scapegoat undermines the credibility of the judicial process. "Unfortunately, the Althing (parliament, dominated by a leftist coalition, ie) was not smart in deciding to charge him," said political science professor Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, University of Iceland cheap credit report.According to him, "shenanigans and personal stories have weighed heavily" in the current troubles of the former Prime Minister, who is the victim of a revenge from former opponents.

A European survey

In this "house cleaning", Reykjavik has added a European dimension. Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson asked Sunday in Brussels to launch an investigation to determine how it may have allowed Britain and the Netherlands to exert such pressure on the country in case of bankruptcy Icesave bank in 2008. London and The Hague had then advanced 3.9 billion euros to compensate their nationals injured 340,000. But Icelanders have rejected state reimbursement of that amount in two referendums.But last Thursday, the bank Landsbanki, parent company of Icesave, said he had recovered sufficient funds to pay all bank deposits.

Instead of rushing to accept applications and "absurd" of Great Britain and the Netherlands, "experience shows that it may be wise to wait," commented the president of Iceland. Remarks that sound like a lesson for EU officials entangled in the debt crisis. While on the other hand, Iceland seems out of the woods, growing from 2% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year. Similarly, observers believe that the country could do without the final installments of the loan of 1.45 billion euros granted by the IMF after the collapse of its banking system.

LE FIGARO. – Economic activity appears to be a brake brutal. How do you explain it?

Laurence Parisot. – The slowdown is due to meet two sets of causes: the United States, an economic and political situation that was deteriorating, and in Europe, the States that crossed the red line in terms of debt. Once you overcome these difficulties, we find a strong growth and job creation but do not mistake in the analysis of what we experienced this summer. The situation was tense when China began to lecture the U.S. on their debt. The Americans probably wanted then iron the mistigri to Europe. There has been a kind of psychological warfare and an attempt to destabilize the euro area. The markets have overreacted, being by nature very sensitive to rumors, even organized.The moral of the story is that we should not be naive and fall for the autodisqualification: if Europe were attacked, not because it is weak but because it is strong, and if it is envy, because it is enviable.

Who was behind this conspiracy?

I call it an "orchestration" overseas challenges of Europe. See the rumors about the French banks, which were released immediately when they were absolutely unfounded. Our banks are among the strongest in the world. Some of the U.S. media yet announced the death of a particular and even the end of the euro area.We went from attacks on Spain in attacks on Italy and then France, until rumors of degradation of Germany last week! When American publications widely read by investors and financial analysts on false ads headlined drama, questions arise.

The accumulation of debts of the States, however, is a reality …

Certainly. The debts are no longer tenable. They must be absorbed quickly. As shown by the measures taken last week, the government was quick to hear the warning.

You are therefore in favor of the gold back to a balanced budget?

The principle of the golden rule would consolidate the reputation of our country and facilitate the work of any government.Many countries are engaged in it, it would be strange that we're not able to do French.

Ten billion of additional levies for a billion expenditure savings, is this the best way to fight against the deficit?

We had to quickly adjust the situation, the government has. But you are right, this is not enough, and the state must also accelerate the decline in spending. Ideally, a ratio of 1 to 2: twice as many savings on expenses for upward social and fiscal revenues. Measures such as pension reform and the non-replacement of an official two-point in this direction.Going further will require further structural reforms: focus on local communities and to decline the RGPP; work as health, including public hospitals (why does bill over to the insurance sector private for the same benefits?), and finally develop across the public-private partnerships and public service delegations. These channels have the immense advantage of not touching our social model.

François Fillon he had the "SME attitude" that you keep advocating in his anti-deficit plan?

It has indeed been attentive to small businesses but we must do more. Among the SOHO-SME-ETI today are the CAC 40 companies in 2030: they must get the best possible environment in order to grow.That's why we call for an extensive program to délégiférer and deregulate the legal system that encircles the neck to the small and medium enterprises. It should also reduce their taxes. It is shocking that the corporate tax (IS) actually paid by the SOHO-SME is (relative to the operating surplus) of about 39% against 19% for large companies. Among other reasons, the latter deduced from their result the interest on loans, while the SOHO-SME do not because of their reduced ability to borrow. That's double trouble! There is also a reduced rate of corporation tax (15%) for companies whose turnover does not exceed 7.6 million euros. Medef request that the ceiling be raised to 10 million.

Sixteen top managers were willing last week to be taxed more.Do you agree with the exceptional tax on high incomes will be instituted?

We see very high incomes in athletes, actors, professionals: it is not an issue specific to some entrepreneurs. I understand the principle of a special tax to a special moment, but the tree should not hide the forest and make us forget the need for moderation in executive compensation. Also, do not confuse everything. There would be demagoguery to compare the incomparable and put in the same bag annual revenues of 250 000 euros and 2.5 million.Let us ensure that future developments of the threshold does not affect the middle class, including the upper middle classes, which are the engine of the economy.

The inclusion of overtime in the calculation of reduced charges on low wages is not likely does not increase the cost of labor and destroy low-skilled jobs?

There are of course in this action plan that we like less than others. We also deplore the passage of the social package 6 to 8%: it penalizes the profit-sharing that we want to encourage. But all part of a clear logic of debt and that, we salute.

Are you concerned about the evolution of unemployment in the coming months?

We can stop the recent deterioration. Understanding that in TPE-PME is the greatest employment potential and the fostering.Working on better employability of job seekers, integrating strong mutations trades, adapting in real time training.

The precarious employment with the proliferation of part-time, Temporary … How about it?

As part of the agreement on unemployment insurance signed earlier this year, we will create with the unions a working group on the evolution of modes of compensation. We have also provided a social debate on the labor market. I want to bring these reflections to improve the overall employment-unemployment-training. The procedures surrounding the employment contract must further progress: as such, they are blocked by their length and excessive legalism. Fear of hiring is the biggest problem for companies.Should be conducted with the collective labor disruptions that have been done with individual outs. We do not say enough that breaking conventional setup for the first time in France "flexicurity" and everyone wins.

What is the menu of your negotiations with the unions in the second half?

The priority in the coming days is to implement the employer-union agreements in the first half of youth employment. We will also continue negotiations on the value and the modernization of the peer. We will also discussions on the social well-being at work and professional equality between men and women, in which we will include paternity leave.

What is your strategy to get your ideas during the presidential campaign?

In 2007, we published a book, Need air that marked the campaign.We prepare "Need air 2" due out in early January. "Need air 2" propose structural reforms but also bring a great European project. Some time ago, it happened that I meet entrepreneurs who admitted to having voted no to the Maastricht Treaty, now I see those same business leaders confident, enthusiastic and ready to move resolutely towards European federalism economic and social development. France will remain in France if and only if Europe is united, united and powerful.

The era of good times is over. China, which for years received lessons in economic policy by the United States, primarily relating to foreign exchange, takes revenge. While S & P has to sacrifice the triple A of the United States, Beijing, the largest holder of U.S. bonds in the world – by far, with 1,160 billion of U.S. Treasuries in the drawers according to figures from Washington published last May – now estimated to have "every right to require U.S. to address their structural problems of debt."

The Chinese government estimates that S & P has only confirmed a "horrible truth". One that was highlighted by the rating agency Dagong China, which has degraded the U.S. triple-A immediately after the agreement to raise the debt ceiling.She said "the days of Uncle Sam, crippled with debt, could easily squander endless amounts of borrowing from abroad seem numbered. (…) In order to treat his addiction to debt, the U.S. must restore the principle of common sense that we must live within its means. " For Dagong, the note of the United States increased from A + to A with, again, a negative outlook. According to the official Xinhua news agency, the adoption by Congress of a text to avoid a default of the United States failed to defuse "the bomb of debt." This failure to control U.S. borrowing could affect the "well-being of hundreds of millions of families in the United States and abroad," she lamented a few days ago.

In other countries, tempers

In France, Baroin, Minister of Economy, trying to reassure.First European official to respond to the thunder of the deterioration in the sovereign rating of the debt of the United States, he ensured that France "has full confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy and its fundamentals, and in the U.S. government's determination to implement the plan that was approved by Congress this week. "

In the UK, the British Trade Vince Cable held Saturday "completely predictable" degradation of the United States. "This is a completely predictable consequence of the mess created by Congress (…) but they (MPs) have now heard, and the situation of the United States is strong enough," he said.

Japan, the second creditor of the United States, said that its policy of buying U.S. bonds remained unchanged despite lowering their score."Our confidence in U.S. Treasuries and their attractiveness as an investment will not change because of this action," said a Japanese government official told Dow Jones Newswires. Japan, which is trying by all means to curb a flight of its currency against the greenback, has no interest in selling its dollar assets for now since it would only strengthen the yen.

In South Korea, senior officials of the Ministry of Finance held an emergency meeting Saturday to analyze the consequences of the downgrade. But the government has warned against overreaction. "We need not be too worried about our economy and financial markets," said Deputy Finance Minister Yim Jong-yong. An Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has also called for calm markets."At the same time, the other two major agencies, Moody's and Fitch continue to note the U.S. economy AAA. So I think people need to consider all the facts, "she said. In the Philippines, a spokesman for the Presidency said that the downgrade by S & P was "to some extent a wakeup call for the U.S. begin to seriously address their economic problems. We have confidence in their ability to do so. "

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On the night of Sunday to Monday, an agreement was reached between Republicans and Democrats to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. A favorable outcome that immediately reassured the markets: when Barack Obama announced the compromise to 2:45 Paris time, Asian stock markets – open to this hour – surged after learning that the failure to pay the United States was avoided. The Nikkei in Tokyo rose 1.7% immediately before finishing up 1.34%. Later, in Europe, major indices also showed the green, like the Cac 40 in Paris, which opened up 1.35%, and the ragagnant 3700 points, the Footsie Londoner, who took 1.07 % and the Dax in Frankfurt (+1.5%).

Safe haven, gold subside sees the outbreak of the course, which showed great concern on the part of investors.The yellow metal, which was still worth almost 1630 dollars per ounce on Friday, and is around 1615 dollars fell on Monday. Another indicator of the relief the markets: oil, which accounts for the opening of Wall Street about 2.7% to 98.28 dollars.

Immediate response as the currency market, the dollar has suddenly taken against major world currencies, particularly against the yen (the dollar rose from 77.3 to 78 yen per hour), just after the announcement.

Market reassured for a time only

Thus, if the news was appreciated at the time, markets have not been won by either euphoria and await confirmation of the plan by one vote. Yet some Republicans have expressed strong opposition to the agreement. Already around noon on Monday, the dollar back down a little, one euro was trading against 1.4437 dollars (0.23%).Same against the Swiss franc, another safe haven, which goes back to full speed against the dollar and finds its historical levels of force, to 0.78 Swiss francs to the dollar. On European stock markets, the increases were massed in mid-day. Then on Wall Street, the Dow has advanced little in early trade to 15.30, about 0.7%. Not enough to make up for the fall of 4.4% registered in the past week.

Then, around 3:45 p.m., the European and American markets have nose dive.It is not there a sudden distrust towards the agreement on U.S. debt, but a strong reaction of markets to the publication of the U.S. ISM index, which measures the strength of manufacturing activity across the Atlantic and came out in sharp decline.

Many uncertainties remain

A disappointing statistic that echoes the poor performance of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter, and falling very badly, while the federal government announces measures of fiscal restraint. The markets also show careful because the details of the agreement remain unclear. In addition, the debt ceiling would require a new vote in early 2013, after the presidential elections.Now remains to be seen how the rating agencies will react to reductions in planned expenditure, less important than they hoped.

However, they have warned: even if the United States are not lacking, this would not prevent the AAA rating of the country may be degraded. In this case, markets may again sink into depression.

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While the ongoing wrangle with Casino in Brazil has shifted in favor of its competitor, Carrefour has released Wednesday a turnover in line with expectations. Group sales in the first half amounted to 44.6 billion euros, up 2.7% at current exchange rates (+ 2.5% at constant exchange rates) and 0.1% in comparable excluding petrol, adjusted for the calendar effect. Sales for the second quarter amounted to 22.4 billion euros, up 1.6% at current exchange rates, but down 0.2% on a comparable basis, excluding petrol and excluding the calendar effect .

While the group had mid-June, revised down its operating income to 35% in France, it now expects a decline of 23%, due "mainly to France."Lars Olofsson said that "Carrefour has set up an action plan in order to achieve the target set by the Group to grow its sales and EBIT in 2011."

Uneven performance in France

In France, the performance is mixed. Lars Olofsson deplores a "unsatisfactory performance of hypermarkets," whose sales are down 3.3% excluding petrol in the second quarter and adjusted for the calendar effect, after falling 1% in the first quarter.

However, Carrefour welcomes the performance of its stores. Carrefour Market and saw its sales grow by 1.3%. As for Carrefour Planet, "the four stores models continue to show sales growth in double digits."The group said that "the deployment of 21 new stores in the second quarter Planet is broadly in line with the plan, these new stores outperform those of our traditional hypermarkets in Spain and Belgium in particular."

Abroad, the decline continues in Western Europe (down 2.1% in the second quarter and 2.6% in the first). The activity in Belgium, however, displays a successful turnaround, with sales growth of 10.1% in hypermarkets.

Emerging markets are, in turn, still the group's activity. Latin America was up 11% at constant exchange rates, excluding petrol and adjusted for the calendar effect. In Brazil, where Carrefour battle as to marry the first retailer in the country, sales rose 10.2%.In Asia, growth remained at 5.3%, with an increase of 8.3% in China.

In exchange, Carrefour began declining after the announcement of these results. After losing 3% on opening, the title was eventually closed up 1.52% to 22.325 euros in the last trade. The CAC finished up 0.51%

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Christophe de Margerie confirmed and signed. In mid-April, the boss of Total has caused an uproar by saying that the super two euros per liter was something inevitable.This time the statements are more subtle but no less firm: on the margins of economic meetings in Aix-en-Provence, the head of the French company said that "the price (of oil) rather than being on the rise, so do not expect long-term prices (fuel) down. "

The issue is very clear to Christophe de Margerie, "If it does not reflect the increase in oil prices, the box runs." Under these conditions, while going on holiday will intensify in the coming days, the price the pump are about to take four to five cents extra.

The decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA) on 23 June, to tap into strategic reserves to lower prices will have had a very limited impact."The effect was instantaneous – crude has fallen from 115 to 107 dollars, almost four cents less at the pump – but the fundamentals of the market quickly regained the upper hand," said Jean-Louis Schilansky, President of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (Ufip).

$ 200 a barrel

In this case, is the increase in demand on prices. While the IEA has estimated that the outbreak in the spring classes began to slow global consumption, but the 90 million barrels per day (bpd) is no longer so distant pay day loan lenders. Moreover, if growth continues, the cap could be gone by the end of the year, according to the scenarios of the Agency.

Meanwhile, it is unclear how far prices will rise at the pump. At the end of last week, the Brent crude in London closed above $ 118."The courses tend gradually to 120 dollars," said Jean-Louis Schilansky which states that within a few days fuel prices should find their levels of early June. An average of 1.50 euro for unleaded 95 and 1.33 euro for a liter of diesel. As for the bar that fateful two euros per liter, it corresponds to the experts at a price of 200 dollars a barrel. "We still have some respite," said Jean-Louis Schilansky.

In this issue so sensitive fuel prices – especially in summer – the government continues to be very careful. A few days ago, they had encouraged retailers to pass quickly down the barrel instantly.This time, they should encourage stakeholders – oil and supermarkets – to smooth the rise in crude.

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The Court of Justice of the Republic (CJR) announced Friday it had postponed to August 4 decision to initiate or not an investigation of the role played by Christine Lagarde in the case Tapie.

"One of the members of the commission has indicated that he was later forced to recuse himself," said Gerard Palisse, president of the petitions committee of the Court. "The alternate member of the Court which could have us make up for his part that he himself was unable to do so immediately without prior knowledge of the case. The Committee decided to defer consideration of this matter Thursday, August 4, "he added.

The former French Minister of Economy and current executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is suspected of "abuse of authority" in the arbitration in July 2008 on the case Tapie, Credit Lyonnais faxless cash advance.The businessman, who felt cheated after the sale of Adidas in 1993 with Credit Lyonnais, had obtained 285 million euros of public funds.

In May, the Attorney General of the Supreme Court, Jean-Louis Nadal, asked the petitions committee of the RGC to investigate the matter. If the Court decides to initiate the investigation, it should be long and Christine Lagarde would not be considered for several years. The new leader denies IMF, meanwhile, abuse of authority in this matter and have provided "clear conscience".

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The Tokyo Stock Exchange shows the green on Friday morning the Nikkei advance of 0.61% to 9876.10 points to 7 hours while the broader Topix rises at the same rate, at 854.39 points. A good mood, which contrasts with a local situation still fragile confidence of major Japanese companies fell because of difficulties due to the tsunami of March 11, and the extent of recovery is rendered uncertain by the lack of electricity under this was, according to the results of the Tankan index. According to the quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in June, the moral of the major manufacturing firms plunged by 15 percentage points in March to -9 points.

But the unemployment rate in Japan fell 4.5% in May against 4.7% in April, said Friday the Ministry of Internal Affairs.In May, there were 2.93 million unemployed in the rest of Japan, 11.5% from a year earlier (area basis) for a working population increased slightly from 0.1% to 60.19 million people.

In addition, new vehicle sales in Japan, excluding mini-models, dropped 23.3% in June compared to the same month last year, to 225,024 copies, the consequences of the tsunami of March 11 continued to weigh on the activities of automotive industry. The decline is however much less pronounced than the dives 50% and 38% respectively recorded in April and May, in the aftermath of natural disasters absolutely free credit score.

Greece supports the markets

But it is mainly Greek considerations that bear the financial markets yesterday.Like the European and American stock exchanges, the main financial markets in the Asia-Pacific moving sharply higher, while the Greek Parliament finally adopted the unpopular austerity plan, paving the way for the release of next installment Assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

In China, the Shanghai CSI does it take 0.60% to 3062.44 points while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong is 1.53% to 22,398.10 points. Manufacturing activity in China continued to grow in June, but at a much slower rate, according to an index released Friday by an organization close to the government, indicating that the measures taken by Beijing to control inflation bear fruit.PMI purchasing managers of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) fell last month to 50.9, against 52.0 in May.

In South Korea, the KRX advance of 1.18% to 4512.99 points. In India, the BSE allows itself to 0.42% 18,924.60 points and Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.55% to 3137.70 points.

Greece will operate at idle on Tuesday, the first day of a general strike of 48 hours. A movement to challenge the new austerity plan which must be passed by parliament before June 30 The unions and the opposition rejected the new tax increases and the waves of mass privatization included in this new plan.

And the movement promises to be monitored. As for transportation, airlines warned that Greek flights will be canceled and Athens, most buses, trolleys, interurban trains and trams will remain in port. Governments are also concerned. In hospitals, only emergencies will be provided, power cuts will be random and banks remain closed. The journalists will stop work for several hours. The outrage, the popular resistance movement apolitical, gathered on Parliament Square.

But despite popular discontent, the government maintains its plan, the adoption of conditions the release of a new tranche of loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Become indispensable aid to Greece to avoid a default. Prime Minister George Papandreou has even called yesterday to the "patriotic duty" of MPs urging them to vote in favor of the proposed budget for fiscal consolidation in the country. And voting will take place tomorrow and Thursday, promises to be particularly tight: the opposition and vote against certain member of the majority – that is up to five votes say they also opposed. If rejected, the Europeans have built up a "plan B", according to Reuters.It would be a plan in case of default anticontagion Greek, distinct from the French proposal, based it on a private sector participation.

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Emerging markets have gained a few percentages of voting rights since the reform as demanded by the IMF management. Their weight increased by 38.4% and 42.3% of the vote. But it is always the U.S. and the Europeans leading international institution in spite of the voting down 46% to 43.4%. These figures are determined theoretically based on State participation in financing the institution.

Countries are grouped by school, themselves represented by a director elected to the Board of Governors, the supreme decision making body of the IMF. Except for the most powerful of them. The United States, France, or Germany, but also Saudi Arabia or China, have a seat assigned to them.This system of representation for the pooled least major countries said that Spain, which supports the candidacy of Christine Lagarde, will vote for his opponent, Agustin Carstens. Indeed, his voice is attached to those countries in South America.

If the weight of each country into account, "the IMF tends to emphasize the consensus in the designation of candidates," said Jerome Sgard, research director at the Center for International Studies and Research (CERI). Large countries like Brazil and China, have not indicated their preference between Lagarde and Carstens. "This type of organizations do not publicize their internal conflicts", slipped the researcher.

In fact, the future boss of the IMF "is not elected," according to Jerome Sgard in an analysis published in Le Figaro."He is chosen, namely the international political establishment which gives it a personal mandate." In this race there, Christine Lagarde seems to have some advance on his Mexican challenger. Performance to be confirmed by June 30, when the "selection process" will be closed.

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