The European car still recovering. In a statement released Monday, the rating agency Fitch believes that 2010 will be a "transition year" for the sector, despite the appearance of "early signs of stabilization." But the number of bankruptcies in the sector should also remain high in 2009, provides for the rating agency.

Fitch anticipates that the impact vehicle sales in Western Europe will shrink in 2010, and that this decline could reach 6 or 8%. The rating agency predicts that by 2009 the decline in sales will reach 5%, and that production will open in fall of 20% over the same period.

The rating agency gives such a negative outlook because of the gradual but planned, the premium breaks that currently boosts sales.The impact of the disruption of these measures remains difficult to quantify, especially in Germany, "the largest car market in Europe where about one million vehicles were sold under these incentives," says Fitch. Emmanuel Bulle, Director in Fitch motor, said that uncertainty: "Based on sales growth and the actual ability of manufacturers to meet all these challenges, a stabilization of the ratings outlook could arise in the first half of 2010."

Increased pressures on cash

The sales momentum is indeed not the only challenge facing the sector. The issue of financial strength will also return to the front of the stage, including OEMs, Fitch said in another note."In the absence of specific operations, such as increases in capital or asset sales, abandonment of leverage will be a slow process for companies falling into recession with a substantial financial debt, as Renault, "the statement said. The manufacturer is rated "BB with negative outlook" when rival SAP is rated "BB +, B, with negative outlook."

Given these financial pressures, "the agency expects the trend to selective alliances and partnerships will continue into 2010, as well as downsizing discrete and gradual, which are necessary to support a structure lower cost, more in line with forecasts of declining sales.

Automakers will also adapt to new consumer needs.Fitch notes that "the trend towards smaller cars is another challenge for manufacturers of Western Europe, focused on technology, while margins are generally larger segments for vehicles and premium sedans. "No matter the size! Some prefer to bet on another emerging trend of consumption, mindful of its impact on the environment: Renault intends to become the largest producer of electric cars, since the launch of its first four models of its kind in 2011.

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